You can outsource your thinking any time to me off-line, Nick. I am very interested in what you just sent, and it applies to the work we are presently doing at our Center.
On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 9:07 AM <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi, Anybody, > > > > I stumbled on this letter in research gate, which seemed to suggest that > we are on the edge of a bustling “small nuclear” economy. The idea seems > to be that we retrofit all our power plants with lowish temperature > reactors and there’s your carbon problem solved, bang! I gather that > these reactors also produce hydrogen which could then be used as a fuel for > vehicles? Did I read that right? > > > > The earlier answer on the entropy of renewables answered the question; > especially when allied with a simple calculation on energy density for > solar and wind. I strongly recommend https://www.withouthotair.com/ > <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.withouthotair.com%2F> > by either buying the book or it is available to download for free. The > author sadly died in his prime but his most important legacy has global > implications and is factual. It proves that the energy balance cannot be > met with natural, non-depleting sources. Please be careful with what you > read, many exponents of renewables equate electricity with energy. In > advanced countries electricity is only about 20% of the primary energy > supply. Heat and transport dominate by far worldwide. > > > > As for nuclear, the IVth Generation of high temperature fission reactors > is the near term future. Light water moderated reactors have been deployed > almost universally in all countries except India, UK and Canada who have > each chosen different routes. The reason for the light water reactor's > dominance despite escalating safety costs is well documented in the > military history of the last century. UK amongst some others developed and > deployed the high temperature gas cooled 'dry' route which has many > advantages as are now recognised. > > The Generation IV small modular reactors are inherently safe (see Ref > Kletz, Trevor for a definition) as has been physically demonstrated in > Japan and China on real plants. These countries have looked carefully and > dispassionately at the options and developed devices which are inherently > safe, factory reproducible, provide high enough temperatures for industrial > and domestic heat, also high enough to produce thermo-chemical hydrogen for > synthetic transport fuels and provide distributed energy sourcing since it > is not feasible to transmit the total energy quantities demanded > electrically in mature economies. Growing economies can move directly to > distributed low-carbon nuclear elegantly avoiding electricity or gas or > liquid fuel transmission infrastructure. > > > > The most advanced demonstration plant in the world is the HTR-PM, > presently in commissioning at 2 x 100 MWe in China following the proving of > its smaller prototype and serious worldwide development effort over > decades. The worldwide body of knowledge on high temperature small nuclear > is at a point where deployment at scale is practical before 2030. Most > advanced countries have small modular reactor programmes with designs at > advanced stages. The high temperature small modular reactor preparations in > China, Japan, USA, UK, France and many others produce heat at a temperature > matched to repower large coal stations carbon-free by re-using all except > the boilers. Deployment studies for such repowering have been completed in > China and USA. You will appreciate the massive impact this will have upon > global emissions. > > > > The fuel is of course radioactive but is non-proliferating for weapons use > because it is contained in ceramic which is harder to break down than newly > mined materials so is unattractive and this also makes it safer to store as > waste. Waste storage volumes are smaller than from light water reactors due > to the higher utilisation of the fuel in the lower energy density core and > the conversion efficiency of the downstream processes plus other helpful > factors. These high temperature small modular reactors can operate on other > fuels such as thorium but can also consume legacy 'hot' residues from > pressurised water reactors and the military. > > In practical terms, it is physically impossible to build traditional large > nuclear power stations at a rate relevant to the latest Paris imperatives. > The only way to achieve a high pace of transition, even without global > energy growth, is by factory manufacture of small distributable energy > plants on a numerical scale similar to other volume manufactures such as > aircraft. The Boeing 737 now has delivered 10,000 units manufactured at > licensed factories worldwide and is still growing. This aircraft has a > similar investment profile to small modular reactors in factory set up and > economies of repetition. Volume manufacturing techniques from other > industries are especially relevant to small modular nuclear but have not > yet been widely applied in nuclear. > > > > As has been said by others in this post, the energy subject is large but > that should not prevent thinking fundamentally about the underlying > thermodynamic realities as MacKay has done, applying the immutable laws of > physics in this debate as few have done and unemotionally analysing the > problem and reaching conclusions as many enlightened nations have already > but perhaps too quietly done so that democracies can be offered rational > choices. > > > > Perhaps the final arbiter is cost in all these things. The UK Government > Techno Economic Assessment has shown that small nuclear is attractive from > a socio economic perspective and was followed up by a formative expert > finance working group to make ready the market and the commercial context. > Most recently a study, which can be extrapolated internationally laid out a > pathway. > https://d2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net/insightReports/Preparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf?mtime=20161011145322 > <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fd2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net%2FinsightReports%2FPreparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf%3Fmtime%3D20161011145322> > > So the answer to Dariusz's question is in my view, YES, supported by > massive programmes of excellent work invested in small modular high > temperature reactors which is largely unseen by the general population and > decision makers to who sadly have so far only been offered rather poor, > expensive and regressive energy choices for all our children. > > Please read widely and draw your own conclusions > > > > The source is: > https://www.researchgate.net/post/Does_nuclear_power_have_a_future_or_will_new_technologies_of_renewable_energy_be_developed_in_the_energy_sector#view=5fa3fc12212f30468621d416 > > > > I apologize for once again out-sourcing my thinking. I promise that in > return I am ever ready to answer your urgent inquiries concerning the > alarm calls of *Corvus brachyrynchos*. > > > > Nick > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA mobile: (303) 859-5609 skype: merle.lelfkoff2 twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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