Also here's a recent Sep 22 IEEE Spectrum with our friend Mikhail Pokopenko featured on ABM approaches later in the article
"Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard" https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard _______________________________________________________________________ [email protected] <[email protected]> CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505 office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828 twitter: @simtable z <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828>oom.simtable.com On Wed, Oct 14, 2020 at 11:11 AM Steve Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > Tentative answer to my own question: > > https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512 > > > On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote: > > Cody - > > Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today > than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what > I was thinking (or at least saying) back then! > > I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would > result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of > gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing... the few attendees > in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no > outbreaks while I was there... see! I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!". > I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well, > though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 > moments. > > I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have > even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels > of herd-immunity might be. I remember when some of the early broad > testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more > widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought > we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd > immunity". Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat > ambiguous... > > I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network > transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity" > means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals > limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others. It seems > that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that. > Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually > characterizes such? > > - Steve > On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote: > > I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity > and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith. > > My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if the >> Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few >> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce >> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but >> also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their mitigation, take >> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense >> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can >> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had >> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States >> early on, then later vice-versa? >> > > Cody Smith > > > On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS >> model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)... It >> doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)... and is >> parameterized with sliders. >> >> >> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html >> <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html> >> >> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft): >> >> >> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js >> <https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js> >> >> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond >> echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed >> by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity. >> This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a >> good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting >> hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good >> treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines. >> >> >> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b >> <https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b> >> >> For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and >> styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and >> ability to location-track and shut down mobility. >> >> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red >> States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate >> "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the >> population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the >> answer to which, is naturally 42). >> >> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the >> evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we >> didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours >> ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might >> end up being a source of virus resistant. >> >> >> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/ >> >> >> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY >> >> >> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if the >> Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few >> states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce >> deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but >> also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their mitigation, take >> a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense >> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can >> imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had >> a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States >> early on, then later vice-versa? Seems like the ongoing extraction >> economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more >> service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even >> office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced. >> >> Mumble, >> >> - Steve >> >> >> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- .. >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe <http://bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe> > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe <http://bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe> > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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