Nick, After reading your post, I went on a short quest to prove you wrong. Regretfully I did not find much information to support my claim. The most optimistic date for a vaccine is like 9 months away, which is likely a very rough estimate. They have a pretty effective vaccine for rhesus macaques, but I am not particularly concerned with that. September's second wave is only 3 months away, so it looks like a vaccine is not going to be ready. Will we achieve natural herd immunity before the vaccine is available?
Another article mentions neutralizing antibodies, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc2241. Do they intend to mass produce those antibodies and then inject them into patients or is it just a proof of concept? Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from? Cody Smith On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 3:50 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > Cody, > > > > Llama plasm. I am not betting on Llama plasm by September. > > > > I think of this as our war. Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK > city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we > wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm. We would > be hunkering down for a long campaign. > > > > The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it > would do the job. > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *cody dooderson > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics > > > > Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a > vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the > links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it > possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not > need the 'white van' approach in September? > > > Cody Smith > > > > > > On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > So what is “benignitivity”? > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics > > > > Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how > annoying we language obsessives are. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > > Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission > rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve > toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is > achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each > host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer > copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; > the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing > off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high > transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the > benign strain wins. > > > > I hope I got that right. > > > > Nick > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Prof David West > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics > > > > Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign > vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. > avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance? > > > > Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest. > > > > davew > > > > > > On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [email protected] wrote: > > It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to > which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory > <https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16>, > the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more > transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv. > > > > n > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels > > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM > > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics > > > > Dave writes: > > > > < 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total > will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the > lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. > > > > > It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself. > > > > Marcus > > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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