Stephen, and Owen,
It is wonderful that you-guys are doing that. An interviewee on TRMS convinced me last night that the current response (shutting down functions, extreme distancing, etc.) is designed to protect old white guys at the expense of younger brown ones. Since the government consists largely of very old white guys, we can see why this is. But this policy is almost certainly unsustainable. For instance, agricultural production depends on migrant labor, so if the border is really closed, there will be food only for the very richest amongst us. So, once testing is up to speed, we are probably going to have to start leaking the virus through, hopefully holding the number of illnesses below the level of health system collapse. This conversation has not started, but it will begin very soon, and at that point, a model will be needed that factors in the health effects on the economically most vulnerable against the health effects on the medically most vulnerable, we old white guys. (I am 82, so I get to speak for OWG’S.) It will have to be understood that some OWG’S will die so that many more young brown people can live. . That will be the trade off, and you know how it’s likely to go unless we are ready do our part. This will particularly tricky when the vaccine gets closer and we OWG’S become like the soldiers on the field during the last day before the Armistice. Easy for me to say, I know, but If you have any way to show that relation, I hope it ultimately appear in your model. In the meantime, I recommend that everybody use this time of social distancing to prepare and plant a garden. Nick Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Stephen Guerin <stephen.gue...@redfish.com> Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:01 AM To: thompnicks...@gmail.com Cc: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Zoom invite for March 20 Virtual FRIAM Nick writes: >Do you have a favorite contagion model to apply to this situation? Yes. Ours. ;-p Right now it's a baby that only a mother can love. It literally took its first steps just yesterday when it was delivered to the web. Owen is the proud father seeding the egg of Agentscript.org with a ported Netlogo virus on a network model: https://backspaces.github.io/agentscript/models2/?virus For the geeks, you can inspect its code here - I'm impressed that Owen got the syntax and semantics nailed with Agentscript to the point that a model like this can be expressed this tightly: https://backspaces.github.io/agentscript/models/VirusModel.js You can see more on AgentScript core here: http://agentscript.org http://backspaces.github.io/as-app3d/ Aww, you can see it currently looks like its mama here: http://www.netlogoweb.org/launch#http://www.netlogoweb.org/assets/modelslib/Sample%20Models/Networks/Virus%20on%20a%20Network.nlogo Cody and Josh are adopting the baby and raising it in their lovely geoSpatial home of Realtime.Earth. We have great plans for the baby (see attached) to serve the world leveraging real-time and historical citizen location data as it interacts with more grown up models like LANL's OPPIE/Episims <https://www.lanl.gov/projects/mathematical-computational-epidemiology/agent-based-modeling.php> Silly metaphors aside, there's some good discussions this week on the SimSoc email list about epidemic models https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A1=ind2003 <https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A1=ind2003&L=SIMSOC> &L=SIMSOC and a review paper that may be of interest: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5594572/ Beyond the applied, you may have seen these two models this week which have been a great service for educating the public on the basics of SIR models and value of social interventions: * Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve” - Washington Post <https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/> * Outbreak: A playable disease simulation: https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/ I hope this Friday at Virtual FRIAM we can discuss viable short term approaches for implementing ABM SIR models coupled with geospatial and social dynamics to inform real-world policy and citizen behavior to mitigate the effects of the current spread. -S --- -. . ..-. .. ... .... - .-- --- ..-. .. ... .... stephen.gue...@redfish.com <mailto:stephen.gue...@redfish.com> 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505 office: (505) 995-0206 mobile: (505) 577-5828 tw: @redfishgroup skype: redfishgroup redfish.com <http://redfish.com/> | simtable.com <http://simtable.com/> On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:07 PM <thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote: THANKS, Stephen, Do you have a favorite contagion model to apply to this situation? N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Stephen Guerin Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 9:41 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com> >; Wedtech@Redfish. Com <wedt...@redfish.com <mailto:wedt...@redfish.com> > Subject: [FRIAM] Zoom invite for March 20 Virtual FRIAM I configured to auto mute attendees when they enter to minimize feedback issues and background noise. You can unmute yourselves when you would like to speak. I will be there to Host. I suggest that we have a reasonably focused conversation given an online format: Some suggestions: * China, Singapore, South Korea and Israel have achieved good collective action against COVID-19 but at sometimes at great privacy and freedom costs. The US might need to find an alternate path. What might that look like? * What might Applied Complexity approaches offer a Epidemic Intelligence Service <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service> (Wikipedia) * How can we have collective intelligence while maximizing privacy during an epidemic? * How can we have collective action while maintaining freedom? * Latest thinking on ABM and SIR Epidemic modeling and validation * How do we get realtime location intelligence to and from the citizens while maximizing privacy? (George Duncan) * others? Tom, can you start a google doc and invite folks to edit? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/330929933 Meeting ID: 330 929 933 One tap mobile +16699006833,,330929933# US (San Jose) +13462487799,,330929933# US (Houston) Dial by your location +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston) +1 646 558 8656 US (New York) +1 253 215 8782 US +1 301 715 8592 US +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago) Meeting ID: 330 929 933 Find your local number: https://zoom.us/u/aeFVtAwDkj
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