Glen writes: < I'd be interested to hear how you (and others) answer Roger's question: "So when the actor believes in a probabilistic network of possible futures, updates those expectations according to each iota of evidence as it is received, and acts accordingly, is that belief or skepticism?" >
Underlying such a network is some generating process, and the belief is about that ongoing process, as tabulated by joint and conditional probabilities. Some of the imagined degrees of freedom may not be relevant in an applied setting (e.g. pilot waves or a multiverse) and are acceptable reasons for having probabilities, but others can and should be explained by hidden or external variables. The more these variables are made explicit, the more precise and falsifiable the predictions can be. Ideally, one would have a network of logical predicates that deterministically lead to one or a degenerate set of equivalent solutions. Marcus ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
