*HSBC* Mortgage Services - Home <http://www.hsbcmortgageservices.com/> is: The *H*ongKong and *S*hanghai *B*anking *C*orporation
2009/6/14 Douglas Roberts <[email protected]> > Interesting. > > I think I know what V&V and simulations are, and I might even buy into MA > (morphological analysis), but what is HSBC? Is it > > *HSBC Program* To Help Rare Dolphin In Yangtze River - ChinaCSR.com > *...*<http://www.chinacsr.com/en/2007/09/04/1655-hsbc-program-to-help-rare-dolphin-in-yangtze-river/> > or > *HSBC* Aren <http://www.hsbcarena.com/> Buffalo, New York. Home of the NHL > Buffalo Sabers. > > or > *Hobe Sound Bible > College*<http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=13&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hsbc.edu%2F&ei=e7g1SsaMH5HstAPuk9XyCg&usg=AFQjCNGv02MnhgnrUnE4mkomSTtiV_2Eyw&sig2=4v5LRwLY8dMa--8pjexe-w> > or > *HSBC* Mortgage Services - Home <http://www.hsbcmortgageservices.com/> > (I abhor undefined acronyms.) > > --Doug > > > On Sun, Jun 14, 2009 at 8:11 PM, Stephen Guerin < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Two potential projects are brewing at sfComplex around validation and >> verification in complexity models and "order of battle". Please come and >> listen to Bill Reynolds and Marta Weber describe their upcoming applied >> complexity project. >> >> SPEAKERS: >> Bill Reynolds - Least Squares Software >> Marta Weber - Applied Behavioral Sciences >> >> TIME: Mon June 15 1:30p Santa Fe Complex Commons >> 632 Agua Fria Street >> >> ABSTRACT >> We give a (patent pending) approach for supporting validation and >> verification (V&V) for complex modeling and simulation. We present a means >> of characterizing methods, Breadth-Depth, which encompasses techniques >> ranging from simulation to unstructured human judgment. Based on this >> framework, we argue that a cost-effective method V&V of HSBC simulations is >> triangulation of simulation against breadth methods. We propose a specific >> instantiation of this approach, based on morphological analysis (MA). We >> propose to develop a software tool to support MA-based breadth-depth >> triangulation. We will use the tool to conduct breadth-based V&V for >> simulations developed under the HSBC program. We conjecture that this will >> lead to superior V&V methodologies for simulations of complex systems. We >> further conjecture that the effort will lead to improved insights and >> capabilities into the operational use of simulations for complex decision >> problems. >> >> >> ABSTRACT >> An order of battle (OB) is a simple encoding of information that is >> particularly relevant to a military commander. The choice of information >> used in an OB captures centuries (or even millennia) of expertise in the >> military arts. The idea of a Cultural Order of Battle (COB) is to provide an >> operationally useful capture of expertise from the social sciences. Facts >> that are obvious to anthropologists, psychologists or economists can be >> manifestly non-obvious to commanders, planners and analysts. The COB strives >> to capture these facts in transparent, easy-to-use and disseminate method >> modules that focus on specific areas of the social sciences. Each module >> will be modest – trying to do one thing well, albeit something that is not >> in the operational lexicon of military experts. Sophistication and >> complexity arise through the combination of modules, a practice we call >> multimethod analysis. Our approach considers various problems simultaneously >> through many disciplinary lenses. >> >> The COB consists of three prototype methods: a tool, from anthropology, >> for understanding cultural segmentation - splits and bonds between groups >> based on identity; a tool, from psychology, for assessing utility of >> decisions using prospect theory; and an approach, from economics, for >> enumerating the institutional networks of non-state actors (NSAs) - >> structures that can be formed by cooperating and competing NSAs with >> different institutional capabilities (e.g. trade, security, logistics). >> >> SPEAKER BIOS >> WILLIAM NASH REYNOLDS, Ph.D. is the founder, President and Chief Science >> Officer of Least Squares Software and has been a principal researcher and >> innovator in the field of complexity for more than twenty years. Over the >> past eight years, he has focused on the role of complex systems in >> intelligence analysis, directing his research toward complexity-based >> analytic methodologies, which are of practical value to analysts in the >> Intelligence Community. In this capacity, Dr. Reynolds has conducted >> numerous intelligence analysis case studies assessing the impact of >> technology on efficiency and effectiveness in analytic practice. Dr. >> Reynolds holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from the University of >> California at San Diego, and Bachelor’s Degrees in Physics and Comparative >> Literature from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. >> >> Selected Publications & Presentation >> 2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth for Warning. Invited presentation >> at the National Intelligence Council Seminar on the Tradecraft of Warning, >> February 20, 2009, Arlington, VA. >> 2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth: A Quantitative Taxonomy of >> Method and Multimethod. In preparation. >> 2009. Reynolds, W. N. and Moore, D. T. Advancing the Practice: >> Multimethodological Analysis for Intelligence. In preparation. 2006. Moore, >> David T. and Reynolds, William N. So Many Ways to Lie: Complexity of Denial >> and Deception. Defense Intelligence Journal 15(2):95-116. >> >> >> MARTA S. WEBER, Ph.D. is the founder of Applied Behavioral Sciences and a >> psychologist with thirty years of experience in clinical, forensic, and >> intelligence practice. Dr. Weber pioneered the use of in-depth remote >> psychological profiling and introduced a comprehensive method to >> psycholinguistic analysis of speech and text to determine motivations, >> intention, and deception techniques in subjects internationally. She is a >> recognized expert in the analysis of organizational leadership. In addition >> to her Ph.D. in Psychology, she holds advanced degrees in Sociology and the >> History of Art. She received specialized training with the Federal Bureau of >> Investigation’s Behavioral Sciences Unit. Dr. Weber has provided >> consultation and training to U.S. intelligence agencies since 2000; she has >> worked with LSS since 2005. >> >> Selected Publications & Presentations >> 2008. Human Capital Assessment in CI. Competitive Intelligence Magazine >> 11(6) >> 2006. Leveraging Behavioral Sciences for Improved Intelligence Outcomes. >> Paper presented to The Intelligence Summit. Arlington, VA. >> 2004. Profiling for Leadership Analysis. CI Magazine 7(4). >> >> >> --- -. . ..-. .. ... .... - .-- --- ..-. .. ... .... >> [email protected] >> (m) 505.577.5828 (o) 505.995.0206 >> redfish.com _ sfcomplex.org _ simtable.com _ lava3d.com >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> > > > > -- > Doug Roberts > [email protected] > [email protected] > 505-455-7333 - Office > 505-670-8195 - Cell > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > -- Alfredo Covaleda Vélez Ingeniero Agrónomo Celular +57 311 213 7829
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