I agree with Orlando that there is no need for a conflict here. The Bayesian paradigm provides a unified framework for decision making that integrates a subjective interpretation of the past record and views of the future. Further it is a paradigm that in a principled way modifies current beliefs according to incoming data--Bayesian learning. In an important sense the Bayesian paradigm does resolve the controversy.
George On Thu, Jan 8, 2009 at 10:22 PM, Orlando Leibovitz < [email protected]> wrote: > Tom, > > Some of us look to both the patterns of the past and a subjective belief > about the uncertain future when making decisions. And sometimes the way we > interpret past patterns is as subjective as our anticipation of the > future. Why set up a non existent conflict? > > O > > Tom Johnson wrote: > > A sidebar conversation regarding the "reality" of models > > 'The story that I have to tell is marked all the way through by a > persistent tension between those who assert that the best decisions are > based on quantification and numbers, determined by the patterns of the > past, and those who base their decisions on more subjective degrees of > belief about the uncertain future. This is a controversy that has never been > resolved.' > — FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO ''AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF > RISK,'' BY PETER L. BERNSTEIN > See > http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?_r=1&ref=magazine > > -tj > -- > ========================================== > J. T. Johnson > Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA > www.analyticjournalism.com > 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) > http://www.jtjohnson.com [email protected] > > "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. > To change something, build a new model that makes the > existing model obsolete." > -- Buckminster Fuller > ========================================== > > ------------------------------ > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > -- > > Orlando Leibovitz > > [email protected] > > www.orlandoleibovitz.com > > Studio Telephone: 505-820-6183 > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > -- George T. Duncan Professor of Statistics, Emeritus Heinz College Carnegie Mellon University (505) 983-6895 Life must be understood backwards; but... it must be lived forward. Soren Kierkegaard
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
