Greetings, all --
A couple of links to ponder: first, from "The Long Tail", Chris Anderson's blog:
October 09, 2008
Best advice I've heard all week
What should you do amidst financial turmoil?
"Put
wax in your ears. People are more afraid of flying than driving because
the press does not report car accidents. I never watch the news. Only
listen to news you get in a social setting, the things people talk
about. Our brains cannot deal with the overload of information. Having
a lot of data is not good for anyone trying to make a decision."
Nassim Taleb, quoted in an interesting article
(sub required) about why we're so bad at putting bad news in context.
Found in an old (Aug 30) issue of New Scientist that I was reading on
the plane back from Brazil today.
Posted at 12:48 PM | Permalink
Hmm...I'd argue that you can never have enough *relevant* data for making
decisions, and indeed, determining what's relevant may be akin to John
Wanamaker's observation about advertising: "Half my advertising is wasted, I
just don't know which half." To the extent that history is written by the
victors, I'd be interested in hearing more from people who have followed
Taleb's advice and were not successful.
Second, for those who enjoy this kind of thing, another link suggesting that we
still have some ways to go.? Personally, I think the VIX is very interesting to
watch and consider right now, even though it, too, is somewhat "manufactured".
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/10/fibonacci-unhin.html
Yes, Margo Channing said it best: "fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a
bumpy night".
- Claiborne -
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