Levitt is a good a talker (and story teller), but his reasoning is often specious and it leads him into big errors. He frequently uses the "oh MY!, oh..MY!!" form of entertaining story telling, along with proof by "I can't imagine any alternate". He's also sometimes self-critical, but those are actually the same tools that dominate conspiracy theory. Statistical association does stimulate the imagination, is a great and useful betting man's tool, and does reveal false associations. Unfortunately it has no causal value and Levitt very frequently still clings to that false hope.
These are hazards anyone with an knack for entertainment stumbles into I think. It's too tempting. One case in point is the 'abortion ends crime wave' theory, where the only thing he proves is that two different statistics identify the same group of people. Wow! It's the leading way of his telling the story that brings about the appearance of "amazing fact". If you study the true causal sequences involved in the end of the real post civil-rights crime wave of the American ghetto, a profoundly different set of events found actually taking place. The actual timelines combined with his theory would have you conclude that the reason the crack epidemic leveled off on Staten Island three years before it did in the Bronx was because the conservative teens on SI were that much earlier to get on line at the abortion clinics. The whole line of reasoning is remarkable only for demonstrating how distorting prejudice can be. Phil Henshaw ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 680 Ft. Washington Ave NY NY 10040 tel: 212-795-4844 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] explorations: www.synapse9.com > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore > Sent: Saturday, October 14, 2006 12:44 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: [FRIAM] Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the > Economics ofEveryday Life > > > Check out the recent lecture: > September 27, 2006 - Public Lecture Series > Steven Levitt, University of Chicago: > "Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the Economics of > Everyday Life" > http://www.princeton.edu/WebMedia/lectures/ -- Owen Owen Densmore http://backspaces.net ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
