On 2/6/2025 4:49 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Wed, Feb 5, 2025 at 8:30 PM Brent Meeker <meekerbr...@gmail.com> wrote:
/>>> The sequence of N repetitions gives you an estimate of
the probability distribution/.
*>> OK, but even if N=1, such as when I flip a coin just once, I
can still obtain a probability of it coming up headsthat makes
sense.*
/> But Quentin is asserting that if it comes up heads then the
probability of heads was 1 and the probability of tails was 0.
Thus completely misapplying the concept of probability./
*I don't think so. If _AFTER_ I hit a golf ball 200 yards and we all
see that it landed on one particular blade of grass and you ask what
was the probability that it landed on that one particular blade the
correct answer would be 100% despite the fact that there are millions
of other blades of grass that it could've landed on. *
Depends on how the word "was" is meant. If "was" refers to before you
hit the ball, then the probability was not 1.0. Even after it hit the
ground and was rolling it was not 1. It only "was" 1 if "was" refers to
now.
Brent
*John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>*
mbg
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