*I own some Nvidia stock and yesterday it dropped 17 percent, I also own TSMC and ASML stock and they also dropped by a lot, but I am not worried because the reason for the drop was the Chinese company released an Open Source small AI that was nevertheless as good as the best much larger western models, and they made it using a new method that only needed about 5% as much computing power to train as western models do; even better they also released a 22 page article explaining exactly how they did it:*
*DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning* <https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.12948> *Hi tech billionaire Marc Andreessen described making this knowledge available by the Chinese as a "Profound gift to the world**", and I think he's right. The semiconductor stocks dropped dramatically yesterday because people figured that now that we know how to get more IQ points with fewer computer chips, people will be buying fewer computer chips. But they have forgotten The Jevons Effect <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox> , as the cost of a resource drops the demand for it increases, and we will never have too much intelligence therefore we will never have too much computing capacity. * *And I don't think we should be looking at this as a victory of China over the USA but rather as a victory of Open Source AI programs over proprietary AI models. I also think that due to recent developments Ray Kurzweil is going to need to radically change his prediction that the singularity won't happen till 2045; I think he will need to chop off at least 10 years off that estimate, probably more. Let's hope that Eliezer Yudkowsky is wrong about what will happen during the Singularity because he can't be very happy today. * *DeepSeek R1 Shocked The World* <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMXRpbxifq8> *John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* lez -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv1XVBbja%2BTJvZ28gOVmRjhwAVHLYsczTbjgtD0nqr4jEQ%40mail.gmail.com.
