I would expect that government spy organizations would already be
archiving the RSA encrypted data traffic in anticipation of being able
to read it in 4 to 8 years.
Brent
On 6/10/2025 1:07 PM, John Clark wrote:
*IBM just published a roadmap of what they expect to accomplish in the
next few years in the field of quantum computers, and it's pretty damn
ambitious: *
How IBM will build the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant
quantum computer <https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc>
*After reading the above I decided to ask Claude the following question: *
*
*
*"IBM recently predicted that by 2029 they should have a quantum
computer that has 200 error corrected _logical_ Qubits, and by 2033
they will have 2000. What sort of things could something like that do,
could it break RSA encryption?"*
*
*
*Claude responded with the following:*
*
*
*"IBM's quantum computing roadmap is indeed ambitious. Starling is
expected to be capable of 100 million quantum operations using 200
logical qubits 'The science is solved': IBM to build monster
10,000-qubit quantum computer by 2029 | Live
Science<https://www.livescience.com/technology/computing/ibm-will-build-monster-10-000-qubit-quantum-computer-by-2029-after-solving-science-behind-fault-tolerance>,
with the larger Blue Jay system planned for 2033 featuring 2,000
logical qubits capable of 1 billion quantum operations.*
*These systems could potentially tackle several important
computational problems:*
*What 200-2000 logical qubits could accomplish:*
*_Chemistry and Materials Science_: Simulating molecular interactions
for drug discovery, catalyst design, and materials development. This
could accelerate pharmaceutical research and help design better
batteries, solar cells, and superconductors.*
*_Optimization Problems_: Solving complex logistics, supply chain
optimization, financial portfolio management, and traffic routing
problems that are computationally intensive for classical computers.*
*_Machine Learning_: Quantum machine learning algorithms could
potentially offer advantages for certain pattern recognition and data
analysis tasks.*
*Cryptanalysis: This brings us to your RSA question - and it's a
crucial one.*
*Regarding RSA Encryption:*
*The threat to RSA depends on successfully implementing Shor's
algorithm at scale. Current estimates suggest that breaking RSA-2048
(the current standard) would require approximately 2,000-4,000 logical
qubits with millions of quantum operations.*
*IBM's 2029 system with 200 logical qubits would likely be
insufficient to break current RSA encryption. However, _their 2033
system with 2,000 logical qubits could potentially approach the
threshold needed for RSA-2048_, depending on error rates and algorithm
efficiency improvements.*
*This timeline aligns with why cryptographers are already developing
"post-quantum" encryption methods that would resist quantum attacks.
The transition needs to happen before quantum computers become capable
enough, not after.*
*It's worth noting that these are IBM's projections, and quantum
computing development faces significant technical challenges in error
correction and maintaining quantum coherence at scale."*
*===*
*2025 IBM Quantum Roadmap update
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y43boNNoVo>*
*
*
*Realizing large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrZHPil0BTA>
*
*John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>*
3a9
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