https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/is-a-model-3-really-cheaper-a-simplified-analysis-from-an-owner.167040/
Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner
September 21, 2019 camalaio
... I wanted to address something that comes up fairly often: How much
money can I expect to save with a Model 3, if any?
To the disappointment of many, I will be answering this in view of the
following limitations:
- Long Range option, because that matters for many people.
- Canadian prices and taxes, because that is where I live.
- Comparing to a new 2019 Subaru Crosstrek, which was the AWD car we
were considering if we didn't go electric. It priced out to about $42,000
(including 12% tax). Model 3 after taxes and rebates was about $74,000. Tax
on the Tesla was 15% because its base price was higher, and that's how that
works here.
- We drive a lot. 600km/week for work, and we tend to venture outward
often. 40,000 km/year would be a good estimate of our current habits. This
is just under 25,000 miles.
Fore-word
We bought a Long Range AWD Model 3 because we were looking for the best
EV in terms of range, efficiency, has-AWD, and utility. Oh, and have
adaptive cruise control, because it's 2019 and adaptive cruise is very nice.
Range was a necessity. Efficiency was a personal desire. AWD is very
nice for the winters around here. I really want to be able to take trips
with cargo in the vehicle, and occasionally tow a very light trailer.
But sir, the Crosstrek isn't a fair comparison to the Model 3! In terms
of the above criteria, it actually is. Range is sufficient given that it's
gas, it's a fairly efficient little crossover thing, definitely AWD,
hatchback, can tow light trailers, and has adaptive cruise with EyeSight
(which has useful features that the Model 3 does not have, I should point
out).
Performance of the Model 3 is a plus for climbing hills, but I'll get
there eventually either way. AutoPilot where we want it is more of a burden
than a help (in fact, the adaptive cruise part has a lot of phantom braking
on our routes, so we just don't use it which is really disappointing) and I
did not purchase nor want the Full Self Driving option anyways.
As for the Crosstrek, initial price is obviously a huge plus. However,
what about yearly costs? Here we go!
Contextual Information
Gas is mildly expensive in British Columbia. Prices in my area have been
somewhat stable around $1.32/L for some months, but can be as high as
CAD$1.48/L. To convert, 1.32 CAD is 1.00 USD at the time of writing, so
about $3.79/gallon in USA numbers.
Electricity however is very cheap. My local provider is a hydroelectric
company and charges $0.09/kWh for the first usage bucket, and $0.14/kWh
after. Getting an electric car pushed us into the second bucket,
unfortunately.
Commuting by car is very prevalent where I live, as the public transit
system is lacking due to our fairly spread out population.
Costs of Driving: Gas ("ICE")
Cars using internal combustion engines (ICE), or simply "gas cars" have
many moving parts at high temperatures. We're familiar with their routine
maintenance costs.
My previous vehicle (Honda Crosstour) did well on the highway for its
size, 7.2 L/100km (32.7 mpg). The Subaru Crosstrek is actually rated for the
very same efficiency on the highway. Driving this would cost $47.52 for
500km.
Regular maintenance (oil changes, oil filters, air filters) is very
nearly overshadowed by the costs of fuel. I'll get into this at the end.
Brakes are not a large cost to me personally. At 160,000km, I have 60%
pads left due to highway driving and mostly using gearing to slow down.
Early major component failure, like Tesla, is expected to be covered by
warranty.
In the future, gas prices are generally expected to rise significantly.
Costs of Driving: Electric
These are rough numbers. Routine maintenance for the Model 3 is expected
to be low or non-existent. In my opinion, this isn't because there's less
moving parts. There's less high-temperature moving parts exposed to
contamination from both the environment and combustion products. All else is
equal or in fact more complex.
The Long Range Model 3 is allegedly 75kWh. Based on forum info, let's
use a charging efficiency of 90% while charging at 240V 30A, which puts us
around 83kWh we need to dump into the battery to travel 500km (rated range).
This seems about right based on our electricity bill increases since getting
the Model 3. We indeed get very close to the rated range, usually a bit
better. Winter will change this for the worse (perhaps 20-40%), but winter
also makes gas mileage 20-30% worse for the vehicles we have.
83kWh costs me $11.62. 500km travelled costs me $11.62.
I'm assuming minimal maintenance as intended, though I personally expect
to change coolant at least once. Some regular servicing is common between
gas and electric vehicles, so I'm not considering this as a difference. For
brakes, I already hardly use brakes already so regenerative braking in the
EV makes little difference to my brake maintenance.
Minor issues common to gas vehicles are not expected. However, the fewer
components of an EV generally means when something goes wrong, it's
expensive.
In the future, electricity prices are expected to rise. However, given
that charging the EV is not even the majority of our electricity usage (even
with such a long daily commute), I suspect any justification to raise
electricity prices significantly "because of EVs" is rather unfounded and
unfair to others so won't happen for a couple decades in my opinion.
Cost of Purchase: Financing.
I need you all to consider this, please.
$74,000 is not a small amount to finance. $42,000 is not a small amount
to finance.
If you find yourself in the position of needing to fully finance any new
vehicle purchase, it is very likely that interest will completely offset any
electricity savings!
If you have a 4.5% interest rate, the cost of borrowing $74,000 over 7
years is $12,400. Borrowing the the cheaper $42,000 vehicle is $7000 over 7
years. However, dealerships (not Tesla) often have something like 0% or 0.9%
financing. 0.9% over 7 years costs you only $1,300, a difference of $11,100.
I used a purposely slightly higher than possible rate. If you get a
worse rate than this, it's extremely not recommended. You're paying far more
in the long run for a depreciating asset.
Use the numbers below. Do your own math. Be real with yourself.
Costs of Driving: Compared
Per 100km
- Gas: $9.50
- Electric: $2.32
Electric is roughly a quarter of the cost, and saves $7.18 per 100km.
Per Year (40,000km)
- Gas: $3,801.60
- Electric: $929.60
Electric is roughly a quarter of the cost, and saves $2,872 per year.
Comparison Discussion
The savings over gas would take over 12 years to account for the
difference in price between the two considered vehicles.
12 years down the road, 480,000km (300,000 miles) will have been put on
the vehicle. It's fair to assume at this point that one major component of
the Crosstrek needed work. However, it is also fair to assume the battery of
the Model 3 is in a degraded state at this point. Replacing the battery may
be just as expensive as replacing the whole drivetrain of a gas-powered
vehicle (if not more so), and is something that should not be ignored at a
whopping 480,000km. Therefore, for long-term scenarios, I deem it unfair to
state that the Model 3 is nearly maintenance-cost-free and assert that there
are no cumulative maintenance or parts savings over a gas vehicle.
I did not include a ~250,000km gas vehicle constantly being in the shop
for minor issues. From what I've seen in life, this is hard to quantify or
predict. However, let's say it adds up to an engine or transmission
replacement. The EV battery replacement still overshadows this.
There's still potential for major component failure on the Model 3,
let's not forget that.
So, why Model 3?
In actuality, I factored in more costs. The car being replaced (Honda
Crosstour) had additional maintenance for differential and other driveline
components that was also performed very frequently. This 4WD system's
"special" Honda fluids were not only replaced frequently, but cost a lot of
money. Let's factor in the pricing of more technologically advanced goop
then.
Of course, there's other less frequent but notable maintenance items.
The timing belt replacement at 160,000km is very expensive. You've got to do
spark plugs perhaps around the same time as well. A leak here, a leak there,
some seals replaced. A 12V battery or two. In the end, giving Tesla the
benefit of the doubt that the Model 3 is indeed nearly "maintenance-free",
my Excel sheet led to...
11 years.
11 years down the road, the total cost of ownership is expected to be
the same as another newly-purchased gas vehicle (well, the Crosstrek). At 11
years, the risk of battery replacement above still comes into the picture.
So why purchase it?
We wanted to stop burning fossil fuels. There's hydroelectricity here,
which means our electric usage is indeed having an immediate benefit in
terms of CO2 emissions. Yes, dams are worse in other regards, which I admit
I am ignorant of.
I also want other people to drive electric, and giving our vast amounts
of money to the company doing the apparent best job at EVs was a primary
motivator. Perhaps one day this will be cheaper for others to take part. For
now, I hope our investment serves to reduce our personal footprint, and also
helps Tesla get more people into EVs.
There are other attractive EVs, some with more issues than others either
personally or factually. But honestly, even with Tesla lead times, it was
the only viable EV that we could purchase within 8 months, and we needed it
within 5 months to arrive in time to be our winter vehicle replacement (a
purchase was going to be made, EV or not).
And if I'm being really, really honest with myself... I do love that I
don't have to find where to dispose of used oil and car parts anymore, or
constantly feel as if the next oil change is just around the corner. Phew.
Also, have y'all driven a Model 3? They're a blast
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