As Lee Hart has pointed out, EV interest in the US (and probably elsewhere) has always run in cycles. There are a couple things which make this upswing different.
For one, this is the highest peak I've seen since I've been aware of EV issues (that's almost 50 years). This HAS to make EVs more of a threat to oil and ICEV interests. For another, this time Tesla has added a lot of momentum to the mix We have never, in my memory, had an EV-specialty company as well financed or as successful. This is the first one I can think of that's created cars that car buffs covet - and that just happen to EVs. This has brought in performance- and prestige-seeking buyers who previously would NEVER have considered an EV. Tesla have transcended "green," and that's a good thing, IMO. As long as they don't stumble too badly, I think Tesla has to keep pushing the EV market forward here in the US. I don't think we would have seen the bigger batteries coming from Nissan and GM without Tesla's competition, so I see it as driving battery development too. That's another good thing. However, don't forget that the mainstream is still heavily invested in ICEVs and oil. They don't want to see even a tiny fraction of their market or income diverted to EVs. While many (most) corporations focus on short-term revenue, the politically influential players look way ahead. They'll spend millions now to keep from losing billions in upcoming years. Not to sound paranoid, but I don't think we can entirely discount the possibility of Tesla being "Tuckered." If you don't get this reference, look up the story of Preston Tucker and his "48." Tesla aside, the political picture is murky for EVs, and not just in the US. In the EU, the climate change issue seems to be treated very differently from the way it is in the US. Mainly, I don't think it's as much of a political football. As I understand it, the EU sets targets and presses for carbon reduction legislation in their member nations. (Am I wrong about that, EU folks? Straighten me out.) However, politicians there have discovered that running on immigration and the refugee crisis gets them elected. In some cases these newer governments, shall we say, aren't setting as high a priority on carbon reduction and EV promotion. This could hurt the EV cause there too, depending on how long those governments are in office. IMO, the dark horse here is China. They look set to become the world's largest producer of EVs, as long as their government doesn't cave to oil interests. If the CA EV mandate survives, I can envision the big automakers (and not just Detroit) bringing in "captive imports" for their compliance EVs, drawing on the likes of Geely and BYD. That's what Chrysler did when they got caught flat-footed by the 1973 gas crunch, except they went to Mitsubishi of Japan. (And then there were the Ford Pinto and Chevy Vega. 'Nuff said.) Here in the States, I don't think we're likely to see another EV1 debacle, with EVs literally being taken off the road and crushed. However, I think it's possible (depending on what happens with Tesla) that we're close to the peak in available production EV models for this cycle. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some production EV models vanish from dealers here because of "failure to meet sales targets" in the coming years. Again depending on US political shift with the upcoming election, we may also see national level legislative efforts to prevent individual states from passing CA-style tighter environmental regulations. They may even try to roll back California's. Of course all of the above is speculation. I'm not an auto industry expert, and I don't have a crystal ball (or even a bowling ball). But I have been around long enough to have seen multiple cycles of EV interest since about 1967. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Read EVAngel's EV News at http://evdl.org/evln/ Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
