On Wed, Oct 11, 2000 at 11:22:45PM +1100, Hamish Moffatt wrote: > There are four possible paths: > > Ballot 1 Ballot 2 Outcome > AJ's Amendment GR > =================================================================== > Yes No No change > Yes Yes No real change (non-free still kept) > No No No change > No Yes Big change.
This grid is an oversimplification because not all states are equally likely. Ever taken a class in probability? Ballot 1 Ballot 2 Outcome AJ's Amendment GR =================================================================== Yes (50%) No (50%) No change Yes (50%) Yes (50%) No real change (non-free still kept) No (50%) No (75%) No change No (50%) Yes (25%) Big change. You want David Welton to vote "Yes" on the first ballot because, while he is certain to vote "no" on the second since he "doesn't want any mucking about done with Debian", it is to your tactical advantage if people yes for AJ's amendment, making the passage of YOUR preferred form of mucking about more likely (and the passage of John Goerzen's resolution -- which you oppose -- impossible). If David votes no to AJ's amendment, he contributes to a LOWER likelihood of any ultimate change, because the unmodified GR will be harder to pass. Again, proponents of the status quo are better off voting no/no, because AJ's resolution is statistically more likely to pass than John's. (It is also extremely unlikely that, if AJ's amendment fails, the bloc of dissatisfied voters who wanted to see it win are going to vote for John's amendment. I haven't yet seen anyone who wants to pass a resolution just for the sake of passing it; the two blocs here are ideologically opposed and practically all proponents of AJ's amendment can be expected to vote against John's resolution if it is the final form used on the ballot[1].) [1] If they vote rationally. -- G. Branden Robinson | What influenced me to atheism was Debian GNU/Linux | reading the Bible cover to cover. [EMAIL PROTECTED] | Twice. http://www.debian.org/~branden/ | -- J. Michael Straczynski
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