OK. Try that search again. This time add ", windows xp" (the comma will give you 2 graphs on the same axes), or try ", windows vista". I don't think that this is a valid tool for predicting user base.
On Wednesday 26 March 2008 10:51 am, Daniel Burrows wrote: > On Wed, Mar 26, 2008 at 02:43:37PM +0800, Wei Chen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> was heard to say: > > The search volume for Debian has been continuously decreasing in the > > recent years, as shown in the search trend statistics of one of the most > > famous search engines. This indicates that Debian is losing its users, > > e.g. about 50% in the last 3 years. > > So is Linux, apparently. > > http://www.google.com/trends?q=linux&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 > > That decline looks quite linear to me. At this rate, in another three > years there will be no Linux users. Doomed! We're all doomed! > > Red Hat is in trouble too, it looks like. And they even pay > marketers! > > http://www.google.com/trends?q=Debian%2C+Red+Hat&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&so >rt=0 > > > > A little more seriously: > > Exactly what statistic is calculated by that page and what's the > methodology for deriving it? According to Wikipedia, which is of course > > never ever wrong or mistaken: > > The horizontal axis of the main graph represents time (starting from > > some time in 2004), and the vertical is how often a term is searched for > > relative to the total number of searches, globally. > > So what that actually says is that the *proportion* of searches for > Debian has fallen by a factor of two. I would tend to expect that an > increase in search volume would not affect all search terms equally: if > we assume that the increase is due to new users, it seems likely they're > searching for things that are relevant to them rather than for computer > operating systems. > > IOW, most Debian and Linux users were probably already represented in > Google; by definition they already have a computer. What I think you're > seeing in those graphs (note, btw, that the Debian and Linux ones are > nearly identical in slope) is that a lot of people who aren't part of > the Debian user base have started using Google, and they don't search > for Debian stuff, so the Debian share of searches is decreasing. It > might be nice to get those people using Linux, but there's no reason to > run around shouting about how the sky is falling. > > Google Trends is a cute toy, but its numbers aren't especially > meaningful IMO. Check out the Debian vs Red Hat graph above: do you > really believe that Red Hat usage is around 10% of Debian usage? I > don't. > > Daniel > > PS: people don't like ponies either, apparently. > > http://www.google.com/trends?q=ponies&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 -- To UNSUBSCRIBE, email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with a subject of "unsubscribe". Trouble? Contact [EMAIL PROTECTED]
