Hi,

This email presents different scenarios based on the amount of
fundraising accomplished.  For each amount of amount of fundraising, I
list one option of what we can afford.  Of course, money can be
shifted around in various ways, but the general magnitudes hold.  The
goal here is to allow everyone to see the trade-offs, and judge for
themselves what is acceptable and likely.

Base assumptions:
- DC12 fundraising at 60 kUSD ~= 60 kCHF.  So below, 100% = 60 kCHF.
- 44 Professional and 2 corporate, or about 30 kCHF of money from this
  source.  Even this much is not guaranteed [see recent concerns on the
  lists].  44 is based on the number of single/double rooms we have to
  sell.
- All options have sponsored day trip / conference dinner.  With the
  large magnitude of monies we are talking about, removing this this
  doesn't affect very much.  Removing this last minute could close ~10
  kCHF deficits.
- I exclude income based on bed upselling or bar profit, I'm not sure
  it'll be so much.  This is small compared to magnitudes below (~10
  kCHF in localteam budget).


100% of DC12:
- We have 45 person-weeks.  (zero sponsored attendees).  We barely
  have enough money to pay for food for professional attendees.  No
  travel sponsorship.

150% of DC12:
- 50 DebCamp attendees, 100 DebConf attendees (about 100 sponsored
  person-weeks).  Zero travel sponsorship.

200% of DC12:
- 50 DebCamp attendees, 150 DebConf attendees.  (About 150 sponsored
  person-weeks).  About 20 kCHF travel sponsorship.

250% of DC12:
- 75 DebCamp attendees, 200 DebConf attendees.  (About 230 sponsored
  person-weeks).  About 30 kCHF travel sponsorship.

250% of DC12, Option 2:
- 100 DebCamp attendees, 300 DebConf attendees.  (About 355 sponsored
  person-weeks).  No travel sponsorship.
- This was the most recent budgets proposed by localteam, 1-2 weeks ago.

300% of DC12:
- 100 DebCamp attendees, 300 DebConf attendees.  (About 355 sponsored
  person-weeks).  About 30 kCHF travel sponsorship.
- This was the "original budget" of localteam, several months ago,
  before moderating it to make it a bit more realistic.  (This email is
  different also because  it has new estimates of attendee fees).

~~~~

Commentary:

This should show things are possible, but not ideal.  For the more
realistic numbers, we would be undergoing a huge cost, for few
attendees and no travel sponsorship.  The higher ranges here seem
unlikely until proven otherwise.  This isn't to say that Interlaken is
necessarily better than Interlaken, because both are expensive [though
Interlaken will allow more attendees at 100%--250%, due to lower
forfait].

If we took the option of renegotiation to make it one week instead of
two, these numbers would look much more favorable due to halfving the
63kCHF forfait for reserving the whole camp.

So, which of these lines do people think are a) achievable in terms of
fundraising and b) a trade-off worth making?

If anyone has questions about how this could be adjusted, let me know.

~~~~

My opinions:

This is why I have proposed waiting a bit before deciding: time is our
friend, and lets us have a better idea about which of these categories
we can fall in, and then we can see if that's okay, or want to cost
cut more.  At least I have reasoned myself out of total fears of
bankrupcy, but giving up attendees isn't a much better option...

hug and I talked and (I think) we agreed that 150% is safe, 200% would
be optimistic.

(hug and )I consider(ed) ~100+ professional attendees unrealistic, and
even 60-100 is pushing it unless I hear other new information.

- Richard

-- 
| Richard Darst  -  rkd@          -  pyke: up 1:28, 4 users
|            http://rkd.zgib.net  -  pgp 0xBD356740
| "Ye shall know the truth and -- the truth shall make you free"
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