On Thu, Jan 30, 2003 at 08:05:46AM -0800, Mike Rosing wrote: > On Thu, 30 Jan 2003, Harmon Seaver wrote: > > > Actually, VW has a plant making synfuel out of biomass. And we won't have to > > wait long before oil is $50-100 a barrel, it's at $35 right now and world oil > > production will peak this decade. > > In the '80's it was "obvious" that oil production would peak around 1995. > We've already burned up all the solar energy collected from 140 to 250 > million years ago - the dinosaur model does not fit the amount of oil > we're actually finding. There's a lot more oil in the ground (most of > it may be under the oceans) so the price isn't going to rise that much for > the next 100 years.
I'll have to find the studies, but it was the same oil geologists (not enviros) who used the same model to accurately predict the peak of US oil production who did the one on world oil production. They couldn't do the world one until later because they couldn't access stats from the USSR, etc. which they have now. > > That doesn't make "biomass" a bad fuel, but if it's gonna compete it > will have to get down to $20/barrel to be a clear winner. > > > That's a pretty easy decision to make, eh? Ethanol is renewable, oil isn't. > > Ethanol doesn't pollute, oil does. Ethanol doesn't require troops in the Middle > > East, wars, and resultant terror attacks, oil does. Quite simple. > > Ethanol pollutes, any hydrocarbon is going to be mixed with N2 and make > NOx, there's no getting around it with any kind of Otto engine. Yes, of course, there's always NOx (although that can largely be dealt with by cats), but the other stuff, sulfur and particulates, is gone, and there are no problems whatsoever from things like spills, which are quite catastrophic even in the short term. Biofuels are also greenhouse neutral. (snip) -- Harmon Seaver CyberShamanix http://www.cybershamanix.com
