Likely that between the two, only prediction markets enable the possibility of encouraging real-world outcomes.
On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:19 AM grarpamp <[email protected]> wrote: > https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2660628 > > Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets versus Prediction Polls > > Management Science, Early View, Forthcoming > > 37 Pages Posted: 15 Sep 2015 Last revised: 28 Nov 2017 > Pavel D. Atanasov > > Pytho LLC > Phillip Rescober > > Independent > Eric Stone > > Independent > Samuel A. Swift > > University of California, Berkeley - Institute of Business and > Economic Research (IBER); Tepper School of Business > Emile Servan-Schreiber > > LUMENOGIC > Philip Tetlock > > University of Pennsylvania > Lyle Ungar > > University of Pennsylvania > Barbara Mellers > > University of California, Berkeley - Marketing Group; University of > Pennsylvania - Marketing Department > > Date Written: March 1, 2017 > Abstract > > We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, > experimental test between two crowd sourcing methods – prediction > markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made > forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction > tournament. Some forecasters traded in a continuous double auction > market and were ranked based on earnings. Others submitted probability > judgments, independently or in teams, and were ranked based on Brier > scores. In both seasons of the tournament, last day prices from the > prediction market were more accurate than the simple mean of forecasts > from prediction polls. However, team prediction polls outperformed > prediction markets when poll forecasts were aggregated with algorithms > using temporal decay, performance weighting and recalibration. The > biggest advantage of prediction polls occurred at the start of > long-duration questions. Prediction polls with proper scoring, > algorithmic aggregation and teaming offer an attractive alternative to > prediction markets for distilling the wisdom of crowds. > > Keywords: Prediction, Forecasting, Prediction Markets, Crowdsourcing > > JEL Classification: C82, C93, D84 > > Suggested Citation: > Atanasov, Pavel D. and Rescober, Phillip and Stone, Eric and Swift, > Samuel A. and Servan-Schreiber, Emile and Tetlock, Philip and Ungar, > Lyle and Mellers, Barbara, Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction > Markets versus Prediction Polls (March 1, 2017). Management Science, > Early View, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: > https://ssrn.com/abstract=2660628 >
