On Thu, Jul 03, 2014 at 06:18:32AM -0700, Greg Schmidt wrote:
> Perhaps there is an argument that the UCB formula "won't generally let this
> happen" since it takes into consideration both win rate and tries to increase
> confidence by promoting the visit of nodes with low visit counts. Still, I
> can envision cases where time is running out, and UCT has just recently
> discovered a promising new branch.
In practice, choosing this promising new branch is very dangerous.
Promising new branches pop up all the time, but we can observe
them usually being swiftly squashed away by finding a refutation
to their current favorable move as soon as they start receiving
simulations, and their winrate fades back again.
The fact that some branch has already received many simulations means
that it consistently survived all sorts of proposed refutations.
--
Petr Baudis
Life is short, the craft long, opportunity fleeting, experiment
treacherous, judgment difficult. -- Hippocrates
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