Hi,

This is a draft of the paper I will submit to ACG13.

Title: CLOP: Confident Local Optimization for Noisy Black-Box Parameter Tuning

Abstract: Artificial intelligence in games often leads to the problem of 
parameter tuning. Some heuristics may have coefficients, and they should be 
tuned to maximize the win rate of the program. A possible approach consists in 
building local quadratic models of the win rate as a function of program 
parameters. Many local regression algorithms have already been proposed for 
this task, but they are usually not robust enough to deal automatically and 
efficiently with very noisy outputs and non-negative Hessians. The CLOP 
principle, which stands
for Confident Local OPtimization, is a new approach to local regression that 
overcomes all these problems in a simple and efficient way. It consists in 
discarding samples whose estimated value is confidently inferior to the mean of 
all samples. Experiments demonstrate that, when the function to be optimized is 
smooth, this method outperforms all other tested algorithms.

pdf and source code:
http://remi.coulom.free.fr/CLOP/

Comments, questions, and suggestions for improvement are welcome.

Rémi
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