another interesting question is to judge the bot's strength by watching the facial gestures and body language of Lee Sedol with each move...
On Tue, Mar 22, 2016 at 11:46 AM, Álvaro Begué <alvaro.be...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > On Tue, Mar 22, 2016 at 1:40 PM, Nick Wedd <mapr...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> On 22 March 2016 at 17:20, Álvaro Begué <alvaro.be...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> A very simple-minded analysis is that, if the null hypothesis is that >>> AlphaGo and Lee Sedol are equally strong, AlphaGo would do as well as we >>> observed or better 15.625% of the time. That's a p-value that even social >>> scientists don't get excited about. :) >>> >>> >> "For "as well ... or better", I make it 18.75%. >> > > I obviously can't count. :) > > Thanks for the correction. > > Álvaro. > > > > >> >> Nick >> >> >> >>> Álvaro. >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Mar 22, 2016 at 12:48 PM, Jason House < >>> jason.james.ho...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> Statistical significance requires a null hypothesis... I think it's >>>> probably easiest to ask the question of if I assume an ELO difference of x, >>>> how likely it's a 4-1 result? >>>> Turns out that 220 to 270 ELO has a 41% chance of that result. >>>> >= 10% is -50 to 670 ELO >>>> >= 1% is -250 to 1190 ELO >>>> My numbers may be slightly off from eyeballing things in a simple excel >>>> sheet. The idea and ranges should be clear though >>>> On Mar 22, 2016 12:00 PM, "Lucas, Simon M" <s...@essex.ac.uk> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Hi all, >>>>> >>>>> I was discussing the results with a colleague outside >>>>> of the Game AI area the other day when he raised >>>>> the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, >>>>> given the small sample size involved) >>>>> of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week >>>>> the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol. >>>>> >>>>> I pointed out that in games of skill there's much more to judge than >>>>> just the final >>>>> outcome of each game, but wondered if anyone had any better (or worse >>>>> :) >>>>> arguments - or had even engaged in the same type of >>>>> conversation. >>>>> >>>>> With AlphaGo winning 4 games to 1, from a simplistic >>>>> stats point of view (with the prior assumption of a fair >>>>> coin toss) you'd not be able to claim much statistical >>>>> significance, yet most (me included) believe that >>>>> AlphaGo is a genuinely better Go player than Lee Sedol. >>>>> >>>>> From a stats viewpoint you can use this approach: >>>>> http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf >>>>> (see section 3.2 on page 51) >>>>> >>>>> but given even priors it won't tell you much. >>>>> >>>>> Anyone know any good references for refuting this >>>>> type of argument - the fact is of course that a game of Go >>>>> is nothing like a coin toss. Games of skill tend to base their >>>>> outcomes on the result of many (in the case of Go many hundreds of) >>>>> individual actions. >>>>> >>>>> Best wishes, >>>>> >>>>> Simon >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> Computer-go mailing list >>>>> Computer-go@computer-go.org >>>>> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >>>> >>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Computer-go mailing list >>>> Computer-go@computer-go.org >>>> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >>>> >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Computer-go mailing list >>> Computer-go@computer-go.org >>> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> Nick Wedd mapr...@gmail.com >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Computer-go mailing list >> Computer-go@computer-go.org >> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >> > > > _______________________________________________ > Computer-go mailing list > Computer-go@computer-go.org > http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go > -- Ryan B Hayward Professor and Director (Outreach+Diversity) Computing Science, UAlberta
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