steve uurtamo: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >it's a natural tendency to look for patterns >in data as soon as you have any data at >all. some of these patterns i'd be willing to >bet will hold up over time -- but the bayesian >in me would say that is simply because they have >further given evidence for my prior beliefs. > >requiring everyone to stay out of everyone >else's first standard deviation will take quite a >few more trials, and probably won't change the >order of the existing mogos 1-12, for instance. > >if you were to plot these datapoints with their >1st or 2nd std. dev. errorbars and look at the possible >set of curves that you could fit through them, though, >it'd give quite a funny story, i'd agree. :) > >95% "confidence" is a bit misleading and overrated, >in my opinion.
Oh, I intended to say that this is 68% of confidence interval and if you want 95% then ... Thank you for pointed out. -Hideki >s. > >----- Original Message ---- >From: Hideki Kato <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: computer-go <computer-go@computer-go.org> >Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2008 8:34:42 AM >Subject: [computer-go] Re: Scalbility study: low end > > >Heikki, > >The numbers of games are about 200 and their ratings' standard >deviations (right of Elo) are 70 to 100, right now. To get 95% of >reliability, you have to double them. Don't you think it's too early >to conclude any? > >-Hideki > >Heikki Levanto: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >>Everyone is looking at the top end of the scalability study >> http://cgos.boardspace.net/study/ >> >>But what happens in the low end? Both programs show linear progress to > begin >>with, then a corner, and more (almost?) linear development. >> >>Fatman's curve has a clear break at 3 doublings, when it suddenly > starts to >>improve much slower than before. This goes on until 12 doublings, > after which >>we get the mysterious decline. >> >>Mogo's curve is pretty well linear to 4 doublings, after that there is > more >>variation (I suppose random), but the overall scope is clearly not > what it >>was below 4. >> >> >>It is possible that both programs have a subtle bug that starts to > disturb >>results around this point, but I find it quite unlikely. >> >>The breaks happe at 1350 - 1550 ELO points. Isn't that about the level > where >>plain MC stops improving with more playouts? Would be fun to see if > we could >>isolate the playout parts of those programs, and let them play pure > MC. My >>guess is that they would end up around this level. >> >> >>Could it be that there are other limiting factors higher up? Perhaps > Fatman >>is hitting the next one around 12 doublings, and Mogo will follow at > 14 or >>15... We will see that in a few days, when the new Mogos join the > study and >>start producing results. >> >> - Heikki >-- >[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato) >_______________________________________________ >computer-go mailing list >computer-go@computer-go.org >http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________________ >Looking for last minute shopping deals? >Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. >http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping >_______________________________________________ >computer-go mailing list >computer-go@computer-go.org >http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ -- [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato) _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list computer-go@computer-go.org http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
