In message <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, terry mcintyre <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes
Any estimate of winning probability is only as good as the estimates of
whether particular games are actually won or lost.

Evidently, even strong programs fail to recognize the impact of nakade,

MC programs don't even have any concept of nakade. Nevertheless, the best of them are stronger than programs that do.

which will alter the score not by one point, but by ten or twenty. 
Their estimate of winning probability is totally wrong. Good players
winnow out losing moves and stick with good moves - the basic premise
of minimax searching. Losing a big group will lead to a win only if one
obtains equivalent compensation elsewhere. Good players sometimes make
sacrifice plays, but failing to recognize that one's group is lost will
totally skew one's estimate of one's winning chances.

We all know that MC programs don't play perfectly. What point are you making?

Nick
--
Nick Wedd    [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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