On 1 Dec 2013, at 7:43 pm, Quincey Morris <quinceymor...@rivergatesoftware.com> 
wrote:

> I doubt I can talk you out of it, but the truth is that you — like every one 
> of the rest of us, because we’ve got human brains — are really, really lousy 
> at intuiting about randomness and probabilities. What we *think* isn’t worth 
> the paper our emails are printed on.


You can talk me out of it by providing a compelling argument :)

I agree that intuition about probability is often wrong - it’s something I’m 
trying to gently teach my daughter right now (she’s 7). But that’s also why I 
stopped thinking about it and decided to measure it - I don’t have the 
knowledge to analyse it mathematically, so I did what I could - throw all my 
files at it and count the collisions. The answer was 0. That doesn’t mean it’s 
impossible, but it surely indicates that it’s vanishingly improbable? Our users 
won’t be throwing their entire hard disks at our app, they might drag in a 
handful of files at most.

The point of this was to improve performance. It’s not premature optimisation, 
we’re on our ninth major release, and performance has not so far been a major 
focus, but some users are pushing the limits and we need to do something for 
them - I mentioned one particular user file that has come down from 11 minutes 
to 2 seconds to import, mostly because of considering questions such as these. 
Besides, it makes for an interesting exchange of ideas, I think.

—Graham


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