On Feb 15, 2019, at 10:00 AM, mark <m.r...@5-cent.us> wrote:
> 
> Warren Young wrote:
>> 
>> The cheapest RAID-friendly drives we’re buying these days are about US
>> $37/TB in low quantities.
> 
> $38/tb? Google shopping shows me a 4TB WD Red at $110.

5400 RPM.

Red Pros are $170 at NewEgg, and we’re using WD Golds at $199.  That’s $50/TB, 
but the $37/TB mark is for higher capacity drives.

Even if we take your numbers and halve them again to get miracle high-quantity 
pricing, the payoff time at the OP’s wished-for $1/TB/year is about 14 years, 
and we haven’t even added in ancillary costs like the enclosure, redundancy, 
power, cooling, networking, staff, drive replacement…

> A two-drive esata bay is under $100.

…which won’t hold 50 TB of data.

Even a 4-drive enclosure isn’t enough, since even with single redundancy, the 
largest drives are 15/16 TB, depending on the technology, so that only gets you 
45 or 48 TB.  And then you’ve got to work out how to use those SMR or MAMR 
drives efficiently.

Stepping back to standard technology 10 TB drives requires 7 of them to get 50 
TB with dual redundancy, so even with miracle pricing, you’re probably talking 
about something like $750 for the raw hardware, which gets paid back in ~15 
years on the OP’s schedule, and then only if all 7 drives last 15 years!

Tell ’im ’e’s *dreamin’!*.
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