Since we've already gone down this rabbit hole (pun intended), there's been quite a bit written in the last year about the 'value of a statistical life' and pandemic insurance.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns/?sh=2f2e73046f63 A few companies tried to sell pandemic insurance prior to 2019, but no one thought it was worth the cost. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/04/03/563224.htm Sorry to reduce the S/N ratio on CCP4BB - I blame pandemic fatigue. Best, Mike On Fri, Feb 19, 2021 at 6:47 AM Eleanor Dodson < 0000176a9d5ebad7-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk> wrote: > I have been following this discussion with interest, without having any > informed opinions to throw in.. > (Except as the daughter of an Australian farmer I still see myxomatosis as > a blessing - my father said in his youth to make a living he spent 10months > of every year trying to control the rabbit population, and 2 months on > proper farming - if he didnt there would be no pasture at all, and the > infection reduced the rabbit population to something manageable.) > > But it is a challenging morality - is protecting my aged life worth > creating n million unemployed, etc,etc? > However it is human instinct to try to protect oneself and one's community > and that is what we geared up to do, and woe betide any politician who > suggests otherwise, > > Roll on herd immunity, mass vaccination and some return to proper concerns > like Brexit! > > Eleanor > > On Fri, 19 Feb 2021 at 10:54, Robbie Joosten <robbie_joos...@hotmail.com> > wrote: > >> Hi Tim, >> >> Very good points. The big picture is hard to grasp and we end up taking >> political choices rather than anything else. I'm very glad that we can >> outsource these choices to others every four year here. >> >> Lockdowns may save lives in the here and now, but the global economic >> damage makes life for others much harder to a point that it may actually >> kill them. Economic decline in the First World may be something with which >> that we can deal but, like viruses, it blows over to other parts of the >> world where economic growth is the real life saver. Does the prolonging of >> a reasonably measurable number well-lived lives in the West outweigh the >> extinguishing of a hard-to-assess number of much younger lives in the rest >> of the world? I'm glad I don't have to make that call. >> >> Cheers, >> Robbie >> >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: CCP4 bulletin board <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK> On Behalf Of Tim >> > Gruene >> > Sent: Friday, February 19, 2021 09:33 >> > To: CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK >> > Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Contagious, Self-Distributing "Vaccines?" >> > >> > Hi Jessica, >> > >> > one comment: death cannot be prevented. It is a certainty as soon as you >> > are born (well, 9 months before). >> > >> > While this seems an obvious subtlety, many of the current measures seems >> > to be influenced by the (probably unconscious) belief one can defeat >> death. >> > We can only reduce the risk to die at a certain moment and of a certain >> > cause. >> > >> > The example of rabbits in Australia also illustrates how simple minded >> > humans generally are: we focus on one thing, but usually fail to take a >> larger >> > picture into account. >> > >> > Cheers, >> > Tim >> > >> > >> > >> > On Thu, 18 Feb 2021 08:16:59 -0800 Jessica Bruhn >> > <jessicafbr...@gmail.com> wrote: >> > >> > > Hello, >> > > >> > > There have been some really excellent points raised by others >> > > (informed consent, feasibility, etc), but I would like to share a >> > > story about another time humans tried to release a virus on a wild >> > > population in order to further an arguably noble goal: >> > > >> > > In the 1850s European rabbits were introduced in Australia for sport >> > > hunting. They quickly did what bunnies do and started to become a real >> > > problem. In the 1950s, scientists decided to introduce myxoma virus to >> > > Australia, which is 90-99% fatal for European rabbits, but less lethal >> > > for the native rabbits. They intentionally released this virus and in >> > > the first year the mortality rate was 99.8% for the European rabbits. >> > > Yay, right??? Unfortunately, in the subsequent year the mortality rate >> > > fell to 25% and steadily continued to fall until it was lower than the >> > > reproductive rate of the European rabbits. The host-virus interaction >> > > played itself out: less-virulent viruses arose and resistant rabbits >> > > were selected for. >> > > >> > > To me it seems unwise to assume a replication competent virus >> > > (engineered or not) would refrain from mutating and adapting upon >> > > release, especially over the time course that would be required to >> > > infect all 7 billion+ humans on this planet. To me, I feel our options >> > > are (1) reach herd immunity through natural infection and accept the >> > > preventable deaths of many millions of people or (2) continue with >> > > non-pharmaceutical interventions (mask wearing, distancing, etc) until >> > > we can vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity and hopefully by >> > > that time we have robust testing and treatment options available for >> > > those who continue to fall ill after we reach herd immunity. We as >> > > humans did something amazing by producing multiple safe and effective >> > > vaccines in less than one year, and I would like us to continue trying >> > > to save as many lives as possible by employing these vaccines as >> > > widely as possible. >> > > >> > > Anyways, take care. I know the pandemic is hard on all of us. >> > > >> > > Best regards, >> > > Jessica >> > > >> > > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 6:15 AM Patrick Shaw Stewart >> > > <patr...@douglas.co.uk> wrote: >> > > >> > > > I agree with those who say that A and B are usually incompatible. >> > > > >> > > > If we're like >> > > > chickens-in-a-barn-that-have-been-infected-with-bird-flu, the virus >> > > > very rapidly becomes more virulent (hospital and care-home >> > > > infections?). It's hard for a virus to infect your nose and throat >> > > > quickly, and then stop. >> > > > >> > > > In the medium term the herd will build up some immunity and then >> > > > we'll become more like wandering albatrosses: the virus has to keep >> > > > us on the move if it's going to get itself near another susceptible >> > > > host. >> > > > >> > > > IMO the way a *respiratory *virus tries to "have its cake and eat >> > > > it" - that is, get as much of both A and B as possible - is to >> > > > develop thermal sensitivity. I.e. infect nose and throat but keep >> > > > out of lungs and brain : >> > > > >> > > > https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0389/v1 >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > Thanks, Patrick >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 9:46 PM Edwin Pozharski >> > > > <pozharsk...@gmail.com> wrote: >> > > > >> > > >> I guess for such vehicle to be "extremely contagious" (or >> > > >> contagious at all for that matter) it should be capable of rapidly >> > > >> multiplying inside the host, so that it outruns immune system >> > > >> mediated destruction for at least some time in order to be present >> > > >> in high enough concentration to effectively spread via aerosols. >> > > >> Given the range of immunodeficiencies present in any population, >> > > >> you are essentially guaranteed to kill at least some people whose >> > > >> immune system will not be able to cope with rapidly multiplying >> > > >> virus. You can theoretically fine tune the lethality of such virus >> > > >> to make sure that number of people you thus murder will be less >> > > >> than those that die either in no vaccine or traditional vaccination >> > > >> scenario, but that would be ethical equivalent of that modern >> > > >> crypto fascist suggestion that we just have to take it easy until >> > > >> herd immunity is established, even though few million grandparents >> > > >> will die in the process while the rest of us enjoy indoor dining. >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 12:33 PM Jacob Keller >> > > >> <jacobpkel...@gmail.com> wrote: >> > > >> >> > > >>> It would seem to me that it should be possible to generate >> > > >>> versions of the Covid virus that would: >> > > >>> >> > > >>> A. be extremely contagious and yet B. be clinically benign, and C. >> > > >>> confer immunity to the original covid virus. >> > > >>> >> > > >>> If, then, this virus could be released, with appropriate "kill >> > > >>> switch" safeguards built in, would this not solve the world's >> > > >>> pandemic problems? Is there any reason, practically, why this >> > > >>> approach would not be feasible? >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Maybe we don't really know enough to manipulate A, B, C yet? >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Or maybe it's too scary for primetime...nightmare bio-warfare >> > > >>> apocalypse? >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Has this sort of thing been done, or does it have a name? >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Jacob >> > > >>> -- >> > > >>> >> > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Jacob Pearson Keller >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Assistant Professor >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Department of Pharmacology and Molecular Therapeutics >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Uniformed Services University >> > > >>> >> > > >>> 4301 Jones Bridge Road >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Bethesda MD 20814 >> > > >>> >> > > >>> jacob.kel...@usuhs.edu; jacobpkel...@gmail.com >> > > >>> >> > > >>> Cell: (301)592-7004 >> > > >>> >> > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >> > > >>> >> > > >>> ------------------------------ >> > > >>> >> > > >>> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> > > >>> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA- >> > JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > > >>> >> > > >> >> > > >> ------------------------------ >> > > >> >> > > >> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> > > >> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > > >> >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > -- >> > > > patr...@douglas.co.uk Douglas Instruments Ltd. >> > > > Douglas House, East Garston, Hungerford, Berkshire, RG17 7HD, UK >> > > > Directors: Patrick Shaw Stewart, Peter Baldock, Stefan Kolek >> > > > >> > > > http://www.douglas.co.uk >> > > > Tel: 44 (0) 148-864-9090 US toll-free 1-877-225-2034 >> > > > Regd. England 2177994, VAT Reg. GB 480 7371 36 >> > > > >> > > > ------------------------------ >> > > > >> > > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> > > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > > > >> > > >> > > >> > ############################################################### >> > ####### >> > > ## >> > > >> > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > > >> > > This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a >> > > mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are >> > > available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ >> > >> > >> > >> > -- >> > -- >> > Tim Gruene >> > Head of the Centre for X-ray Structure Analysis Faculty of Chemistry >> > University of Vienna >> > >> > Phone: +43-1-4277-70202 >> > >> > GPG Key ID = A46BEE1A >> > >> > ############################################################### >> > ######### >> > >> > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> > >> > This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a >> > mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are >> available at >> > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ >> >> ######################################################################## >> >> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: >> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 >> >> This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a >> mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are >> available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ >> > > ------------------------------ > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/
