Couldn't asctime be causing the problem, insted of stat, gmtime etc.? The Microsoft documentation for asctime says that it adjusts its output according to local time zone settings, a behavior that disagrees with POSIX. This could explain the symptoms you're seeing.

https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/kys1801b.aspx

Let's put it this way: Emacs ports to mingw and does not worry about gmtime returning a value disagreeing with POSIX. And Emacs does not use asctime (it uses strftime instead).

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