Dave wrote:

>Very true, and if I fail as a parent, it is in showing too much interest in
>the world my son inhabits, rather than following the model of generations
>past and bending him to my will!

My wife and I, and our grown children, have talked about how we (and in
general our generation) have fallen short as parents.  One thing has stood
out: the emphasis on following one's dreams without the counterpoint of
having a very good plan B when one's dreams do not pan out.  It's fine to
want to be an actor, a musician, a writer, but one should not count on
earning one's income that way.  Back in our day, a liberal arts major could
find a good job in business just by being one of a relatively small number
that were well educated.  And, with college costs far lower than now, they
were not as burdened with student loans.  

When I grew up, I heard Great Depression stories thousands of times.  My
wife and I are professional, we had no horror stories of bad economic times
when we were kids, and we didn't impress on our kids to think seriously on
what happens when things don't turn out well.

Now, even if we improve income inequality, the reality is that productivity
improvements mean that fewer workers are needed.  For example, American
manufacturing is producing more goods than ever, with a smaller workforce.
And, we have not had a black swan innovation that creates millions of jobs
(e.g. the automobile, the radio, the computer) in decades.  The last big job
burst was the proliferation of PC applications around 1998-1999.  I've
plotted job growth from 1939 until now, and you can get a good fit from 1939
to 2000, with recessions and recoveries clearly showing as deviations from
this pattern.  Since 2000, there has been a clear falloff, so we now have
over 30% fewer jobs than we would if that trend has continued.  

I really regret not preparing my kids for a world in which they have to face
hard realities.

Dan M.


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