> It is quite possible that we falter over the next two years, sliding back > into depression. One of the most depressing figures is that the average GDP > growth rate for the last 30 years will result in unemployment increasing, > since we need 3%/year growth to tread water.
>Not what I meant, sorry, but I was sticking with your definition of >black swan as a solution to economic malaise. >War, global conflict, would be the most drastic "solution". Well, the US did prosper from wars it has been in, but that's fairly unique. Germany didn't, France didn't. The USSR didn't; the Cold War broke them. The UK lost its fortune in WWI and WWII. And, 'Nam hurt the US economy after a while. We couldn't afford "guns and butter" as the saying went at the time. Even those who argued it was a mangled but essential part of containment, it cost. Finally, as more countries get nuclear weapons, the odds on any real conflict going nuclear increases. For example, what would happen if Chinese territorial zones kept expanding and were enforced by China's navy? Would the US honor treaties, and what would happen then?' Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
