An interesting aside on this.  It took the Mercury program a bit over 9
months to go from the first sub-orbital flight to the first orbital flight.

The big private enterprise sub-orbital flight happened almost 5 years ago
(5 years this coming November IIRC).  It cost 100 million to develop, and
won a prize of 10 million.  I can find nothing in development for private
orbital flight. (By private I mean without government money, not government
contractors).  I have no idea when it will happen, but I will bet a case of
beer against one beer that it will be more than 10 years from the first
sub-orbital flight.

Yes, we have announcement of Virgin planning sub-orbital flights in a
big-time manner, which will probably be close enough to break even to be
worth it in PR.  And, the owner is a multi-billionaire who could afford it.
But, I think it very worth noting that we are not talking about a step that
took the government less than a year not being on the privatae horizen
after 5 years.  There is something fundamental going on here, IMHO.

Dan M. 



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