----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2009 5:15 PM Subject: RE: Iran
> >> Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The >> Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't >> shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been >> committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan >> Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of >> the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid >> indictment of the gravity of the situation. > > > I'm curious to see where you stand now. I read your source, I think at this point we must both recognize that we both access several sources not noted in our discussion, and that the overall situation is much more complex than we are describing. I mention this because I believe we need to broaden the terms of the discussion a bit if either of us are to make arguments that give sensible predictions. I think most people would like to know what is coming from Iran over the next few years as recent events there could destabilize the local equilibrium. >and realize > that info coming from the country has been really cut back....so there is a > lot more speculation than fact in the outside world. Media info is cut back dramatically, but there is still a lot, a whole lot, of lower quality information sneaking out. There is still a fair bit of higher quality info coming from Iran, just not from media outlets. > > I know the Rand Corporation thinks the Revolutionary Guard is the big winner > in this > > http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/06/22/RC.html Interesting article, and probably accurate in some particulars, but I think it misses some crucial points. The group that has gained the greatest enhancement is the Basiji (your brownshirts). They have carried the load in the suppression (as semi-official and sanctioned enforcers) and (it seems to me) to be the locus of the increase in outright fascism in Iran. At this point Iran has to be defined as a fascist state on par with the WW2 fascists. This is a grave concern for reasons I think most of us already recognize. > > Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than > marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of > reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more > militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of > the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). I would expect that the key to recognizing a nearby demonstration would not be the sounds made by protestors, but the sounds of gunfire from those supressing the protestors. Currently, I don't think there are any demonstrations that have 10K protesting, but there may occasionally still be 1K or 2K out on the street (max). > >> Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. > > He may be a figurehead for the younger more militant guard members and their > brownshirt auxillary. Here we disagree. And what we disagree about is who Amadinajad fronts for. I contest that he is a schill for Khamenei. Further, I believe that the entire point of the clampdown is so that Khamenei can ensure that his son becomes the next Supreme Leader. Amadinajad is constitutionally prevented from serving as president after the upcoming term ends. I see three potential events coming. The constitution is changed to eradicate the term limits, the law is changed so that Prime Minister once again becomes the important position it once was with Amadinijad locked in, or Khamenei grooms someone equally pliable as the next president. It is really all about Khamenei and his scoin maintaining power. > >> >> A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will >> determine the course and success of this revolt. >> > >>From what I read, folks will have a hard time not working and not getting > paid at all. With unemployment at 25%, and virtually all money coming from > oil sales, and with everything government subsidized, the government has a > lot of power. Again, I'll agree that we are working on minimal information, > but I haven't been able to see a good source since Monday that indicates > that the reform is gaining a foothold. If anything, its falling back. Agreed. Iranians seem to have had no stomach for a general strike. I think they would like to, but the reality on the ground is not conducive to an action that would entail incredible sacrifice and an obvious hardship on all. (I'm guessing it generally works this way in fascist countries?) > > It reminds me of the USSR in the '70s, when my friend from Moscow said folks > became disillusioned. I don't doubt that in two decades, we could see > reform. But, in between, the odds are that the younger more militant > members of the Republican guard are the most likely to have increasing > influence. And, with predictions of Iran having the capacity for an A-bomb > within a year, we will probably have tough sledding there for the next > decade. > Indeed! But again I'd like to point out the "Brownshirts" and the role their kind play in such situations and the Supreme Leader who is the beneficiary of the suppression. Rafsanjani appears to have had his teeth pulled and without him as a counterweight to Khamenei, the Council of Experts and the Supreme Council are not much more than formalities or at best functions TPTB. Any chance we can get Gautam to weigh in? I'm beginning to lean away from diplomatic solutions and toward military or covert solutions in this matter and would be interested on his take. (Has he written on his blog about this?) [Bani-Sadr is in exile in France a writes a lot about these events in his blog which is sometimes informative] xponent The Gong Of Doom Is Struck Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
