----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, January 07, 2009 6:49 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On >> Behalf Of Lance A. Brown >> Sent: Wednesday, January 07, 2009 1:44 PM >> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion >> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? >> >> Dan M wrote: >> > >> > Look at >> > >> > http://www.allaboutbatteries.com/Battery-Energy.html >> >> And if you RTFA, you'll see a not implausible argument made by Sherry >> Boschertthat Cabasys is squelching the market for large-format NiMH >> batteries: >> > > It seems very implausible to me. And, I think I have some expertise with > companies playing hard-ball with intellectual property. You can look at > the > reference I gave earlier to a recent Boston Globe article that discusses > the > export of one of my inventions to Iran and see how easy it is for big > foreign companies to do workarounds on patents. In particular, what is > patented is not NiMH batteries, but one particular technique for using > them. > Any patent attorney worth his salt can have modest rework written to look > like a new variation, not really covered by the original > patent...especially > if he has good sized companies at his side. > > If you look at this patent, there is no reason that folks like Sony, > Toyota, > etc. would not be willing to have their own Japanese patents on similar > techniques, and have the case settled in Japanese courts. By the time the > case is settled, 2012 would have rolled around. I served on a patent > committee for the second largest oilfield service company in the world for > 8 > years, and am very familiar with how this works. > > It's not that Chevron wouldn't play hardball, it's that Chevron would play > hardball to win money. Sitting on a patent that's about to expire is just > stupid, unless you own the lion share of the oil business. There total > revenue is about 8% of the crude oil sales from last year....and their > last > quarterly filing has them buying 49 billion of crude for the quarter vs. > 79 > billion in revenue. So, they are less than 5% of the crude oil production > business. > > Further, they have licensed their battery technology to big car companies > for their production hybrids. That's not sitting on it. You may argue > that > their strategy is flawed because they don't sell to small startups, but > they > do sell batteries for large scale automotive use....which is not sitting > on > the patent. > > Finally, if this battery were that good, why isn't it dominating the small > rechargeable battery market, where it is being sold without restrictions > (e.g. you can buy them over the 'net)? Why don't all cell phones use this > battery? Might it be the result of the energy density not being all that > high? > If one wants to make direct comparisons of a type of batteries capabilities, one has to go no farther than a hardware store or Lowes or Home Depot. I've been using cordless drills for a couple of decades. They were once using Ni-Cad batteries, until the Nimh batteries swallowed the market. The Ni-Cad and Nimh battery packs were pretty much the same size and performed about the same, only Nimh had a slight edge in most categories. In the last 2 years Li-ion batteries have begun to take over the market. The battery packs are smaller and lighter, but deliver more power and torque and do it for longer with a shorter recharge time. In short, Li-ion are starting to dominate the market and it is a market that has requirements that has similarities to the requirements in Auto applications. The only battery I see coming that might be superior is the very very new Silver-Zinc batteries. They are so new I have only read about them (I don't think they are even being manufactured yet.), but they sound quite promising and I expect they will be very expensive. xponent Silver Lining Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
