...as the price of oil continues to rise the world economy will be in
upheaval, with increasing disease, famine, wars, political and social
chaos. the die off is inevitable among most species, including
humanity and other species will oscillate. most of the genocide and
ethnic cleansing will occur in undeveloped countries with the highest
populations...
jon mann
I disagree. I think the biggest impact will be on industrialized
countries. If you are not very far removed from being an agrarian
society, it is easier for you to adapt to growing your own food if you
have to.
In the school where I work, I don't think most of the students truly
understand that the food they eat is actually grown on farms or raised
on ranches. If you show them hamburgers, many of them won't be able to
make the connection that it was once a cow. But they can tell you all
of the special moves on Street Fighter or any of the other computer
fighting games.
That won't be much help once the electricity fails.
Maybe wealthy Americans who currently own land will be able to get by,
but the working, inner-city poor who have zero concept of agriculture
are gonna have a very hard time of it.
Mauro Diotallevi
Post-Apocalypse Maru
I think we are both right Mauro, but many will die all over the world.
The developed countries will be better able to adapt to political,
social and economic upheaval with the help of technology. The non
aligned nations will progress in different ways and those that make the
right decisions will adapt.
I expect martial law will be declared when things get really bad.
America still has the strongest military in the world, but cannot
remain the policeman of the world. I believe most of our international
bases will gradually be downsized and returned home. It is possible
that an international space force may develop and orbital industry may
solve many of our energy problems, etc.
A lot will depend on what happens in the November 2008 elections in the
U.S. and what happens afterward. America needs to start repairing
our international relations and prepare for further disruptions to our
infrastructure from cataclysmic events such as Katrina. Our standard
of living will continue to decline (as is only fair) and there will be
migration from the cities back to the land. IMHO, agribusiness will
continue to supply food for the masses.
Nations like Bangla Desh will be swamped, but there will be survivors
as populations are excessive in third and fourth world countries.
China and India will have to rethink their path to modernization,
toward sustainability, and recognize that following the model of the
western world is a mistake.
There are billions of people yearning to live like Americans, which
will hasten the collapse of civilization and the people who are
prepared will be the ones to survive. Instead of fighting over food
and energy we need to produce more food and consume less energy.
SF authors write about about a vision of the future where technology
makes everybody relatively rich. i can live with that, as long as we
stop destroying the planet. if technology can make the leap to the
singularity in time, that would be my preference, but so far technology
has only made it possible to consume, pollute and waste to the extent
that civilization may collapse before humanity transcends.
the worst case scenario would be a breakdown in the food chain,
starting in the oceans, that may threaten all life on earth. billions
of years ago life on earth switched from primeval anaerobic respiration
to aerobic. it could happen again, or perhaps to a methane
atmosphere, or something even stranger. perhaps other forms of life
will arise to fill the niches that don't make it.
a better scenario is civilization will survive in pockets where the
infrastructure is much stronger, depending on location, and conditions.
at the very least the survivors will have to adapt to a reduced
lifestyle. if the infrastructure suffers a sudden crash, which may
happen in some cities there will be mass panic, chaos and death. i
doubt it will be that sudden unless there is a disaster on the order of
a 10.0 earthquake, thermonuclear war, or asteroid impact.
when transportation systems start to break down it will likely be a
gradual process in the developed countries, and force a transition from
air and truck cargo to rail and ship distribution. automobiles will
have much higher emission and mileage standards and will be heavily
taxed based on mpg. gasoline will also be heavily taxed and the
revenues will be invested in cheap, eco-friendly, rapid mass transit.
technology has made conspicuous consumption possible and the collapse
of that market will make the dot.com crash look like a minor
adjustment. i anticipate a drastic reduction in materialism and
greed. what we do with technology is what matters and i believe the
profit motive will be replaced with enormous research in clean
technology, which just may save western civilization and force people
to reuse, recycle and reduce consumption.
a crisis in the water supply will force people to stop watering their
lawns, etc. there will still be enough water to drink, except in
countries where there is already a critical water shortage.
priorities will be given to necessities and luxury items will no longer
be produced on the scale industrialized nations are accustomed to.
that will be "a good thing" because it will put the brakes on
conspicuous consumption and planned obsolescence.
mega-capitalists, like bill gates, may be held accountable, or made
public scapegoats, along with the automobile and oil companies, etc.
the plutocrats will be coerced by sanction and incentives that
regulates the development of clean technology, renewable energy, and
sustainability. remaining resources will have to be rationed. we can
see it happening already with escalating fuel prices causing inflation,
and forcing people to reduce their spending on non essential items.
this election should mark a major change in voter awareness that war
has been the wrong course. i expect a backlash against bush/cheney
policies, and an all out emphasis on solar, wind, tidal, geothermal and
other renewable energy research. if mc cain is elected then all bets
are off and i must seriously consider emigrating to canada. the last
eight years have been the most disastrous in history, we cant afford
to continue on that road. if hillary or obama win there is hope we can
undo the damage and change direction.
when the western world goes into a super depression, the chinese will
lose their biggest markets, but by then they will be already suffering
from the pollution and other consequences of rapid industrialization.
their government already does very little to curb the steadily
increasing cancer rates, etc. they may or not start sequestering
carbon emission from their coal plants once that technology is
developed. police states will emerge all over the world.
another green revolution may only postpone the inevitable and increase
consumption. bio-technology can create higher yields, nutrient rich,
pest resistant foods, even synthetic meat, but we don't really know if
there will be dangerous side effects from genetic modification. better
soil management, mulch, crop rotation and less plowing are more natural
alternatives to increase food production.
as more and more starving people pour into the developed countries,
walls will be built to keep them out. it is already starting along the
us/mexico border and in israel. it didn't work in ancient china, but
Israel and america have better equipped troops to maintain borders.
terrorists can cause some damage, but not enough to win.
the war against nature is the real danger and america is better
situated than most countries to survive extreme changes in climate, and
a drastic temperature shift in the atlantic conveyor belt.
governments will be forced to change from global trade policies and
imperialistic agendas to more isolationist policies, to rebuilding
infrastructure and serving its citizens. the consumer society will
have to adapt to more sustainable conservationist methods, and people
will have to learn to be content with basic necessities.
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