Alberto Monteiro wrote:
William T Goodall wrote:
Ok, so let's do the math. Let's create a simulation model,
splitting a human population of 1 Giga into 100-member
tribes [easy enough for modern computers], spread these tribes
all over the globe, create a rule of cross-contamination
[two neighbouring tribes exchange one member each generation -
a consertavite estimate], and add an extra random exchange
from each costal tribe to a random European tribe after 1500.
That's more or less what the researchers quoted in the article at
the start of this thread did to get the results they got...
Ok, so there's no reason to doubt or reestimate their numbers,
which seem reasonable enough - even using kitchen arithmetics
instead of a complete model.
Alberto Monteiro
Alberto--
Sorry, there is too reason to doubt their numbers. The above
model sounds too simple and homogeneous. Even if such a model
incorporates geography, it still doesn't do better than guesswork
when it comes to the cross-contamination probabilities. All it
takes is one region, somewhere in the world, with negligible
cross-contamination probabilities. If this exists, people in
the middle of it will not be descendants of Genghis Khan,
Charlemagne, or whoever.
---David
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