> Deborah Harrell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > Behalf Of Deborah Harrell
  
> > > The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my
> > >friend,  and indeed might be another enemy... 
  
> > But, a variation of that principal has been
> > over-applied by the US in it's
> > intelligence work...   <snip> 
> > Using human intelligence agents usually involved
> > dealing with rather unsavory characters.  
> <snip>
 
<snip>
> If you're dealing with unsavory folk, you ought to
> have the sense to check out what they give you via
> another, unrelated channel....  <snip>
> Which points out the need for intelligence, or at
> least some common sense, when interpreting that
> aquired information.  <snip>

Now here's a sticky wicket in this vein:  Somalia.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060608/ap_on_re_af/somalia_1
Islamic militia leaders who seized Somalia's capital
this week and are accused of harboring al-Qaida
fugitives started discussing the future of the lawless
country Thursday with its largely powerless
U.N.-backed government.  The meeting came a day after
the Bush administration sounded a surprising
conciliatory note toward the militia.

The aim of the Islamic Courts Union, State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters, "is to try to
lay the foundations for some institutions in Somalia
that might form the basis for a better and more
peaceful, secure Somalia where the rule of law is
important."
"I think that as a matter of principle that we would
look forward to working with groups or individuals who
have an interest in a better, more peaceful, more
stable, secure Somalia ... who are also interested in
fighting terrorism," he said.

The statement was a surprising turnaround for the
United States, which had been waging a proxy fight
against the militia, said John Prendergast, a senior
adviser with the International Crisis Group. However,
he said, it was important that the United States work
with powers on the ground in Somalia to bring
stability to the country.
"It's a bit schizophrenic," Prendergast said. "The
overriding imperative now is to bring together
Somalia's warring parties into a process of state
reconstruction that will provide our best antidote
against extremism..."

http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2006/06/06/islamists_claim_rout_of_us_tied_forces_in_somalia/
The Islamist militia took up arms several months ago
against a secular alliance of warlord-businessmen that
had publicly committed to battle terrorist groups in
Somalia. Those secular warlords had close ties with
Central Intelligence Agency officials, who were
pressing to dismantle Islamist factions in a hunt for
Al Qaeda operatives, according to analysts and
interviews with Somali warlords.  Reports from
Mogadishu yesterday said most US-allied warlords had
fled or were fleeing...

...For two years, CIA officials have traveled
frequently to the Mogadishu area and other Somali
cities in hopes of learning more about and disrupting
small bands of Al Qaeda members, who also operate in
Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, Kenyan pilots and two
Somali warlords said recently in interviews. US
officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have
said that three Al Qaeda members indicted in the 1998
US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania were still
being protected by Islamists in Mogadishu.

In surrounding countries, and even in Somalia's
semi-autonomous northern regions of Somaliland and
Puntland, US covert officers have developed close
relationships with governments and local powers.
In southern and central Somalia, CIA officers have
relied on electronic eavesdropping and developing
close ties with various warlords, paying them tens of
thousands of dollars in some visits, two warlords said
in interviews. The two -- Yusuf Mohammed Said , the
ruling warlord in Marka , about 60 miles south of
Mogadishu, and Mohammed Dhere , the warlord in Jowhar,
about 40 miles east of the capital -- along with
Kenyan-based pilots, who asked not to be identified
because of the sensitivity of the situation, said US
intelligence relied especially on warlords who
controlled airports to monitor traffic in and out of
the country...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4841170.stm
Is Somalia next for 'war on terror'?
By Joseph Winter 
The Islamists are the first group to control Mogadishu
in 15 years
Since the 11 September attacks on the United States
more than four years ago, Somalis have feared that
their lawless country could become the setting for a
battle between US-backed anti-terror forces and
al-Qaeda sympathisers.

That prospect now seems more likely than ever.  An
Islamist militia has taken control of the capital,
Mogadishu, from an alliance of warlords widely
believed to be backed by the US.  The US refuses to
confirm or deny these reports but President George W
Bush says he is concerned by the Union of Islamic
Courts' victory.  "The first concern, of course, is to
make sure that Somalia does not become an al-Qaeda
safe haven - it doesn't become a place from which
terrorists can plot and plan," he said.

The union's chairman, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has
given conflicting signals since taking control in
Mogadishu.  He sent a letter to foreign diplomats
claiming that his followers do not sponsor terrorism
and they have no plans to establish an Islamic state
in Somalia.  But he has also been quoted as telling
the Saudi-owned pan-Arabic daily Asharq al-Awsat:  "If
US forces intervene directly against us in Mogadishu,
then we are ready to teach them a lesson they will
never forget and repeat their defeat in 1993..."

...One of the key figures in the Islamic courts and
former al-Itihaad al-Islamiya leader, Sheikh Hassan
Dahir Aweys - on the US list of terror suspects -
denies the existence of training camps in Somalia. 
But he told the BBC News website he has sympathy for
the "Muhajadeen who are fighting back" against attacks
by the US and their allies around the world.

Last year the International Crisis Group, a political
think-tank, reported that: "In the rubble-strewn
streets of the ruined capital of this state without a
government... al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists,
Ethiopian security services and Western-backed
counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy
and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction
and assassination..."


What a tangled mess.  I am not saying "do nothing,"
but doing any old thing in the short term is not a
substitute for thinking ahead and acting for the long
term.  Backing warlords accused of murder and rape is
not how to win the hearts and minds of the locals (or
anyone else).  If you're going to claim moral
superiority over the world, you'd do well not to be
supporting butchers and rapists.

Aand I haven't a clue about what to do now, but the
lesson of Afghanistan is that you ignore a power
vacuum at your peril, later if not sooner.

Debbi
At Least One Head Of The Hydra Got Whacked Off Maru    

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