> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Klaus Stock > Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2006 7:56 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: Scientific methodology > > > I don't see how it works this way. Let me propose a defiantly > > non-scientific method for predicting the weather 2 months in advance. > It > is > > "ask Jimmy." Let's assume, for reasons unknown, that Jimmy has an > uncanny > > ability to predict the local weather two months in advance. We find > that > > his prediction of rainfall, snow, wind direction and speed, and > temperature > > range for two months in the future matches the accuracy of the Weather > > Bureau's forecast for the next day. We don't know how it works, but we > can > > prove, through scientific methodology, that "ask Jimmy" is an accurate > means > > of predicting weather 2 months in advance. > > More obvious: the direction in which an object moves when you release it. > Numerous experiments show that the object falls towards the ground. We > have a rather solid statistical sampling concerning that behavior. > However, no one can actuall prove that this will be true in every case. > Nevertheless, we assume that there is such a "thing" as gravity, and > that we explain a hell lot of stuff with this "scientifc law".
But, that's all that science is. It models observations, gives predictions that can be falsified or verified, and allows us to manipulate the empirical (i.e. technology). There is no scientific way to prove that our observations are real, or that tomorrow the rules will not change. We have no evidence of that happening in the past, but it is possible that it will happen tomorrow. The "ask Jimmy" prediction of the weather is a different mechanism. No model is available. If it exists, it's inside Jimmy's head....and he's claiming that he "just knows." We know that he's right, but we are no more able to predict what Jimmy will say tomorrow than we are able to predict tomorrow's forecast, given knowledge of the weather up to two months ago and knowing the last two months of Jimmy's predictions. The mechanism "ask Jimmy" is a totally different mechanism than the scientific method. It is a mechanism that does not lend itself to being modeled...except as I've outlined above. Thus, it is a non-scientific means of understanding. Yet, it's predictions can be verified by the technique used to verify predictions of scientific models. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
