Dan wrote:
Obtaining the oil production data from
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_crdsnd_adc_mbbl_m.htm
and the crude oil prices from
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Tabl
e.asp
We get the following table:
production
US imports total price GDP US Population
1970 9.6 1.3 11.0 $17.19 3.6 203
1971 9.5 1.7 11.1 $17.50 3.7 208
1972 9.4 2.2 11.7 $18.76 3.9 210
1973 9.2 3.2 12.5 $20.88 4.1 212
1974 8.8 3.5 12.3 $37.26 4.1 214
1975 8.4 4.1 12.5 $44.63 4.1 216
1976 8.1 5.3 13.4 $45.31 4.3 218
1977 8.2 6.6 14.9 $46.74 4.5 220
1978 8.7 6.4 15.1 $45.13 4.8 223
1979 8.6 6.5 15.1 $67.42 4.9 225
1980 8.6 5.3 13.9 $89.48 4.9 227
1981 8.6 4.4 13.0 $77.49 5.0 230
1982 8.6 3.5 12.1 $64.96 4.9 233
1983 8.7 3.3 12.0 $57.48 5.1 235
1984 8.9 3.4 12.3 $54.48 5.5 237
1985 9.0 3.2 12.2 $49.25 5.7 239
1986 8.7 4.2 12.9 $25.92 5.9 242
1987 8.3 4.7 13.0 $30.74 6.1 244
1988 8.1 5.1 13.2 $24.78 6.4 246
1989 7.6 5.8 13.5 $29.09 6.6 247
1990 7.4 5.9 13.2 $34.83 6.7 249
1991 7.4 5.8 13.2 $29.19 6.7 253
1992 7.2 6.1 13.3 $27.00 6.9 255
1993 6.8 6.8 13.6 $22.83 7.1 258
1994 6.7 7.1 13.7 $20.79 7.3 261
1995 6.6 7.2 13.8 $21.64 7.5 263
1996 6.5 7.5 14.0 $25.66 7.8 265
1997 6.5 8.2 14.7 $22.86 8.2 268
1998 6.3 8.7 15.0 $14.38 8.5 270
1999 5.9 8.7 14.6 $19.52 8.9 276
2000 5.8 9.1 14.9 $31.29 9.2 281
2001 5.8 9.3 15.1 $25.57 278
2002 5.7 9.1 14.9 $24.94
2003 5.7 9.7 15.3 $29.63
2004 5.4 10.1 15.5 $39.21
2005 5.1 10.1 15.2 $50.38 287
I got different numbers (though with similar trends) from the first site.
I clicked on View History/2006 for each of the relevant quantities and
then checked the annual button at the top of the chart. So for 1970 I
have 483,293 thousand barrels imported compared with your number: 1.3
somethings imported.
In any case, using my numbers, I subtracted U.S. exports from imports to
get consumption of domestic supplies and added that to imports to get
total consumption. To get per capita consumption I divided the total
consumption in millions of barrels by population in millions. (see
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/brin-l/files/, Oil Consumption Study or ask
me to send the excel file)
What I see on the resulting charts is that 1) consumption increased at a
rate of about a half barrel of oil per person in the years preceding
Carter's speech and then declined at a rate of .8 barrel/person over the
period 1977-1985 (the period previously discussed) the decline starting
before the spike in prices. Most interestingly, consumption declined from
24.6 barrel/person at its peak in 1977 to 18.6 barrels per person in 1982
and then averaged 19.1 barrels per person between 1982 and 2000!!! That's
lower than the 1969 consumption rate of 19.2 barrels/person.
Also noteworthy are the rates of import and export pre and post 1977. One
year prior to prices spiking domestic production increased slightly after
seven years of steady decrease, and imports decreased slightly after
steady increases over the same period. This could be an anomaly, but I'll
bet it isn't - I'll bet the policies enacted by Carter were beginning to
take effect.
Finally, one of your arguments seems to be that consumption can't be
curbed by conservation, but that higher prices _can_ curb consumption.
But what are lower consumption rates compelled by high prices if not
conservation?
--
Doug
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