Why will North Korea pose a direct threat to Japan when, say,
China doesn't, or perhaps more pertinently, wont?
This is the `crazy man' ploy. "I have a strong belief."
The argument is that outsiders will think that the North Korean
government is irrationally committed to one belief or another, and
that the salient people in the government are willing to accept a 30%
chance of death to gain what they want. (I read that 30% chance of
death somewhere in the past year or two. I have no idea what it
really is.)
Therefore, the argument goes, outsiders will think negotiators from
the North Korean government are probably bluffing, but to be on the
safe side, the outsiders will try to placate the North Korean
government by paying it in some way.
I do not know the degree of truth in this, if any. In the US, people
wrote extensively about the ploy in the 1950s and 1960s. Many say it
was used by Nixon at the very least as a bargaining tool.
--
Robert J. Chassell
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http://www.rattlesnake.com http://www.teak.cc
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