----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert J. Chassell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, September 26, 2005 8:49 AM Subject: Re: Evacuation
> On 2005 Sep 25, Dan Feldstein and Matt Stiles in The Houston > Chronicle > wrote > > http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/front/3369453 > > ... the regional evacuation plan was missing a key element -- > pre-planned contraflow lanes ... > > because > > ... Houston's freeway grid is much more complicated than other > coastal cities. I think I gave a fair example of how that is so. > > However, > > State and local officials changed their minds early last Thursday > in > the face of a historic traffic jam. > > ... > > First, they had to determine how and where to redirect traffic. > Then they had to make sure it was safe. About 10 hours later, > with a long, snaking line of idling evacuees waiting, southbound > lanes on I-45 were reversed. Contraflow on I-10 opened later. > > So it took 10 hours and more when those involved had not planned > what > to do. On the one hand, this looks quick to me; I am impressed by > what was done. On the other hand, with planning and exercises, I > suspect it would have taken less time. Not having a plan indicates > negligence on the parts of those responsible. > There is a lot of "git'r'done" attitude here in situations like this. Do it clean, do it dirty, do it sloppy, just do it. It may sound like it helped a whole lot, but I doubt it helped as much as one might think. At some point the contraflow had to end, and at that point the jam begins anew. (I don't think they contraflowed all the way to Dallas and San Antonio. Anyone know?) > ... > > The Department of Public Safety had to send 1,300 troopers to > southeast Texas, more than a third of its force. An army of > local > police also helped. > > The story does not tell us how many local police helped and what > portions of their total forces were used. One has to calculate that in Harris County alone there are dozens of cities with their own police forces, plus the county Sherriffs Dept., and the district Constables, the DPS, Highway Patrol, Texas Rangers......... > > As for evacuation in general, the authors say: > > Florida hurricane planners have learned to worry about the > "shadow > evacuation" -- residents outside the mandatory evacuation zones > who leave. > > I did not know about `shadow evacuees'. This is a good point. But > we > would expect from knowing about human nature that their numbers are > There were very many. Houston was fairly emptied, not completely, but it was very significant. The main culprit were the TV weathermen. I saw reports on TV that were clearly intended to scare the crap out of people (wrongly or not), plus there were a good bit of misinformation about the direction of the storm that was clearly intended to mislead the Houston audience. If people in other areas had heeded the Houston news reports (and some of them can be seen pretty far away and alspo were simulcast in other areas) we might have had a terrible death toll farther east of us. Now and at the time I felt this to be irresponsible in the extreme. Compare local TV with The Weather Channel, and one might think 2 different storms were being covered. > ... always much larger in the immediate aftermath of another > major > storm -- in this case, Hurricane Katrina. > > The following makes sense. With the help of sociologists and > historians, you can predict (give or take a fairly large percentage) > how many will try to evacuate under various reported conditions and > prepare accordingly: > > The answer [to the question concerning evacuation] is to respect > people's freedom of choice, but make sure they are educated at > the > beginning of each hurricane season so they can weigh realistic > considerations ... if you evacuate, you definitely will find > yourself in a titanic traffic jam; if you stay, there may be only > a one-in-five chance the storm will hit your area and, if it > does, > you will spend a terrifying night in your house, but probably > will > be fine. > > > By the way, according to a story in the The Times-Picayune, New > Orleans, LA, on 2005 Sep 26, > > > http://www.nola.com/newslogs/tporleans/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_tporleans/archives/2005_09_26.html#082732 > > conditions in the New Orleans Superdome were squalid, but rather > than > the 200 bodies that a FEMA crew expected, the total was six. The > > ... vast majority [of people] were 'well behaved' ... > > The story is titled, > > Rumors of deaths greatly exaggerated OTOH, all the bodies from Katrina have still not been counted and accounted for. Some may never be found. xponent Like The Tsunami Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
