Hmm... Reasonable yes. But, isn't that assuming that the survivorship
bias continues to favor the US? For a 75 year, or infinite horizon
projection, the chances that it won't can't be neglected.
~Maru
Erik Reuter wrote:
...
For Ireland, Switzerland, Canada, UK, US, Australia, S. Africa, and
Sweden (countries that did not have their capital stock destroyed
during the World Wars), the average growth in real GDP per capita
over the twentieth century for those 8 countries was 1.77%. So, going
out-of-sample from the data I referenced before to include 7 other
countries, and limiting the time period to the twentieth century (to
address you accuracy of older data objection), we have a change from
1.64% to 1.77%. Not a big difference. Looks like the SS trustees figures
for productivity growth are reasonable.
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