At 04:41 PM 4/13/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote: >I hope that my fears turn groundless, and that an Iraq that resembles >Jordan does emerge.
This is the second time I have seen the "Jordan" analogy. Personally, I would be at least somewhat disappointed to see Iraq turn into a self-interested, provincial, monarchy. The goal must be, at minimum, for Iraq to become akin to a Turkey - and the actual goal should be even bolder. >It is clear that I believe that, even with the recent troubles, that our >actions in Iraq have been in the best interest of the people of Iraq. I >also still think that our own best interests have not been served by moving >in Iraq when we did. and >This post has wandered to a couple of other topics, but my point is that >the criticism of Bush is not that he should have invaded Afghanistan in >March, 2001. Rather, its that his plan for countering terrorism by >focusing on countries like Iraq who sponsor terrorism instead of defense >and AQ is/was not the best. I think that it is important to note that invading Iraq was not a policy undertaken solely for short-term gains. The greatest gains from this policy are going to come in the very long term. I think that it is important to not be short-sighted in analyzing our Iraqi policy. I posted some time ago a message entitled "Winning the War on Terror." I am convinced, and I think that this Administration is likewise convinced, that no amount of police action and Homeland Security in the United States would not permit us to foil every Al Qaeda plot against the United States. Rather, we must address also address the root problems of oppression in the Middle East. Nevertheless, there have been some heartening short term gains: -US troops were able to be removed from the Muslim Holy Land of Saudi Arabia with the Saudi government's request -There has been increased pressure on the Saudi government to reform, most recently exhibited in the "Year of the Petition" in 2003 in Saudi Arabia -The US is no longer being blamed for UN sanctions which were resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqi children every year. Of course, the US is now being blamed for other deaths - but these will end in time, whereas the deaths on sanctions appeared likely to extend into perpetuity (or worse, the sanctions were lifted, and Saddam would be free to purchase DPRK and Pakistani weapons on the international black market.) -The Iraqi people are now living under the most liberal constitution in the Arab world -Saddam Hussein is no longer free to purchase DPRK and Pakistani weapons on the international black market, nor is he free to sell chemical and biological weapons on the international black market -Libya has become remarkably forthcoming about dismantling its nuclear program -Iranian dissidents have supplied us with key intelligence leading to dramatic discoveries of the advanced nature of Iran's nuclear program All of the above represent substanital improvements to the US's security situation. >Focusing on Afghanistan and AQ while we improved our >capacity to win the peace after winning the war has been my preferred >strategy. I don't think that the US had that luxury. For how long would you have had the US focus on Afghanistan before focusing on the kernel of terrorism in the Middle East? Secondly, I think that the period immediately following September 11th provided a unique opportunity for the United States - a period of time in which the American people was willing to take bold steps to reshape the world. It is unclear how long this moment of opportunity for taking bold measures would have lasted. Lastly, it is worth remembering that the sanctions regime in Iraq was on life support before September 11th. France, Russia, and China had made their impatience with the sanctions regime well known, and their strong interest in returning to business as usual. Inspections had not occurred in Iraq for three years. Rage at the humanitarian consequences of the sanctions was festering. (And this is all without mentioning the recent discoveries of how rampant the corruption in the sanctions regime was.) It is unclear how much longer the status quo policy on Iraq that you seemed to have advocated would have proved to be sustainable. JDG
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