A matter of trust
Apr 1st 2004 | WASHINGTON, DC
>From The Economist print edition

http://www.economist.com/world/na/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=2553350


Excerpt:

When justifying policies on both Iraq and tax cuts, the administration's
case has been riddled with errors. Obviously, the most egregious concern
Iraq's WMD. Henry Waxman, a Democratic congressman, has gathered no
fewer than 237 exaggerated or dubious claims by senior administration
members.an impressive litany of mistakes. One priceless example: Donald
Rumsfeld in September 2002, asserting that .there's no debate in the
world as to whether they have those weapons...We all know that. A
trained ape knows that. All you have to do is read the newspapers.. (Had
the ape been trained to read?)

....

In the case of the deficit, the budget mis-statements cannot even be
excused on the grounds of simple error. Mr Bush's budget statements have
routinely assumed future spending restraints that few in Congress or the
administration believe will happen. In forecasting future deficits, he
has assumed revenue increases from taxes he is seeking to repeal (such
as the so-called Alternative Minimum Tax). And as Mr O'Neill argued, the
White House was wrong when it claimed, in 2001, that it could not use
the budget surplus to pay off the federal debt beyond a certain point.
All these are cases where the administration should surely have known
better.

There have been a few specific instances of stepping near.perhaps
even over.the line that divides error from irresponsibility. For
example, the president claimed in October 2002 that Iraq had a .massive
stockpile of biological weapons.. The CIA's director, George Tenet,
has said he had no specific information on such stockpiles even at the
time. In the state-of-the-union message in 2003 Mr Bush, citing British
intelligence, claimed Iraq had tried to buy yellowcake uranium from
Africa.a claim that had to be retracted. In March, Mr Cheney said there
was no doubt that Saddam was trying to build a nuclear device. In fact,
the intelligence services had expressed doubts.

But the most damning example comes from the budget process, and from
lower levels of the administration. During the debate in Congress on a
new Medicare prescription-drug bill, the cost of the programme proposed
by the administration was put at $400 billion over ten years.even though
analysts at the Department of Health and Social Security reckoned the
real cost would be about $550 billion and, it is widely believed, had
passed that estimate on to the White House and the Office of Management
and Budget. But they did not pass it to Congress because, says a
whistle-blower, the then Medicare administrator threatened to fire
the chief analyst if he told legislators the higher estimate. There
was legal justification for this, and the administrator denies making
threats of dismissal. But the episode still looks disturbingly like a
case of the administration manipulating federal accounting standards for
political ends.

Lies, or principle?

On both Iraq and the budget, the administration has unloaded its
heaviest ammunition against critics who formerly worked for it. John
DiIulio, who was brought into the White House to implement Mr Bush's
.faith-based initiative., was told to retract his criticism that the
administration lacked a proper policy shop for evaluating facts and
arguments impartially. Paul O'Neill, who repeated that criticism in a
book, found himself on the receiving end of a barrage of personal abuse.
And when Joe Wilson, who had investigated the claims about yellowcake
uranium, contradicted Mr Bush's assertion that there had been a deal,
someone.it is not clear who.telephoned journalists in Washington to blow
the cover of Mrs Wilson (Valerie Plame), who had worked for the CIA.
Richard Clarke was not the first such target.

This pattern of behaviour is strikingly consistent. But what does it
reveal? And how much will it really matter in the election? Critics
of the administration have asserted that it means the whole crew is a
bunch of liars.as John Kerry recently blurted out when he thought the
microphone was switched off. The president always intended to go to war
with Iraq; terrorism was just an excuse. All he cares about is tax cuts;
fiscal discipline and spending programmes can go hang.

But there is another set of explanations, less damning of the
administration. Most of the .lies..almost all of which are actually
mistakes or misrepresentations, not deliberate falsehoods.are products
of the endless spin and interpretation of America's .permanent
campaign.. Message control and winning each 24-hour news cycle have
usurped the place of substantive debate. The Clinton administration was
accused of similar lies and half-truths. It is as much the product of
a political culture as of any one president, and Mr Bush's ambition to
buck the trend has failed.

The administration came into office convinced that, under Mr Clinton,
too much accountability to Congress had hampered effective government.
Its members have therefore tried to re-assert executive privilege. Some
of their attempts to keep Congress in the dark are rooted in this view,
rather than in perfidy and secrecy.

Lastly, many of these .lies. have a curious quality: they tend
to confirm the popular view of the president's temperament and
beliefs.  Usually, distortions suggest that the person responsible
is putting on an act or is somehow different from what he pretends
to be. Yet, at least in foreign policy, the administration's errors
and misrepresentations all tend to confirm the president's image as a
man uncompromising in his determination to fight the war on terror as
he conceives it (at least after September 2001), and willing to ride
roughshod over critics and nuanced intelligence alike to get his way.

And that in turn may explain one of the most surprising features of
the past two weeks: that despite all the controversy over Mr Bush's
honesty, credibility and competence, his position in the opinion polls
has remained resilient. In several polls he has regained a narrow lead
over Mr Kerry, and 50% of voters say they are more likely to vote for
him because of his actions in the war on terror compared with just 28%
for his rival.

Admittedly, the margin on the latter question was even greater two
months ago, and more people now think the war in Iraq has increased
the likelihood of another terrorist attack than think it has reduced
it.  Still, worries about Mr Bush do not yet seem to be translating
into potential votes for Mr Kerry. It is as if voters, faced with the
president's lack of straight dealing, are concluding that truth may
indeed be the first casualty of the war they want to win.


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