At 03:40 AM 3/23/04, Richard Baker wrote:
Ronn said:

> In this particular case, while I find no fundamental fault with the
> mathematical reasoning used, istm that said reasoning and the
> calculations which follow are essentially meaningless in determining
> the solution to the question being posed, because the assumption made
> at the beginning essentially makes the result that we are interested
> in determining the truth of a given.

On the contrary, what my point was that Debbi's sort of anecdotal
evidence, even when supplemented by the observation that there are
plenty more people like her (and you!), doesn't get to the root of the
matter because there's also a quite strong effect caused by the small
fraction of the population who are atheists. Looking at smart people and
finding what fraction of them are atheists would not provide the
experimental data required to decide between the two hypotheses: we'd
also need a measurement of the total fraction of the population who are
atheists. Or else, we could approach the problem by making measurements
on atheists compared with the whole population.

It seems to me that the very root of science is saying "Okay, given
these hypotheses, we can make these predictions" and then picking
experiments that distinguish hypotheses on the basis of their differing
predictions. One part of that is surely to work out those predictions!


You are correct.

And my recent thoughts on the matter are likely to have been affected by the fact that the reason I am up again at this hour of the morning is that, as yesterday, my body can't decide from one minute to the next whether it would rather shiver, overheat, keep me on the edge of throwing up without actually doing so (and so then getting better) or some combination of those and other unpleasant things all at once . . .


How I'm Spending My Spring Break Maru



-- Ronn! :)



_______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l

Reply via email to