I haven't yet commented on the 2004 Elections here on the Brin-L List..... even though I really wish that I had gotten my predictions on the written record. For those of you who haven't been able to discuss the elections with me in-person, however, (basically everyone here) you might be somewhat surprised that know that very, very, early on - i.e. back when he first entered the race - I identified Howard Dean as the person whom I figured would be the Democrats' nominee. Of course, nowadays he is essentially the favorite for the nomination, so you'll have to take my word for it on that prediction - as I am going to stick by my that prediction that Dean will be the eventual nominee.
The one thing that may surprise you all, however, is that as an avowed Bush supporter Dean is one of the two candidates whom I fear the most (the other being Edwards.) In the case of Edwards, I have been very impressed by his speaking ability and his ability to connect to voters. As a Democrat elected in North Carolina, however, he really has the ability to portray himself as a true moderate. And perhaps most importantly, I think that he has the real ability to *win* North Carolina, which in a close election is devastating to Bush's chances and really turns the electoral map on its head.... but more on that later. Now, while I definitely do fear Edwards as being very capable of beating Bush - that isn't exactly an uncommon opinion. Moreover, Edwards really has little chance of winning the nomination, as even if he pulls a miracle upset in Iowa he just seems too far behind in the rest of the nation in a very crowded primary field so I won't dwell too much on that. The opinion that Dean could really beat Bush, however, is a bit more unconventional. The first thing that impresses me about Dean is his stage presence. Dean strikes me as a guy who is very capable of looking Presidential - despite the anger for which he is so often criticized. I may have to look more into the possibility of Dean being perceived as angry and turning off voters, but for now, I think that voters will really admire his convictions. Moreover, I just think that he will look *strong*, which will leave voters with those favorable "gut feelings" that so often decide votes. Secondly, in a tight election - and most experts predict that the 50-50 nation hasn't gone anywhere, it is support from your base that matters most. Dean has unparalleled ability to fire up the Democratic base - unlike an apparatchik like Kerry whom people are mostly supporting simply because they think he can win. Dean pretty much is the one candidate in the Democratic field whom Democratic voters truly want to *be* President. Additionally, Dean has a phenomenal independent organization working for him - which will really help Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote efforts in November. Lastly, Dean is able to go toe-to-toe with Bush between the primaries and the convention, thanks to having ducked campaign matching funds. Thirdly - and I think that this point is underappreciated - I fear Dean because he is so welling to counter the conventional wisdom. Let's face it, with the economy likely to rebound heavily in 2004, the conventional wisdom is that the Democratic nominee is little more than a sacraficial lamb for the incumbent. All the models predict that the incumbent wins big with a healthy economy. Thus, in my mind, the only way to fight that fatalism is to counter the conventional wisdom in every respect. In this respect, Dean is something like The Mule in The Foundation series - he's the unknown quantity outside the equations who is raising tons of money, exciting his supporters to the point of fanatacism, building a powerful organization, and defying the conventional wisdom. Fourth, I don't think that the historical symetry can be ignored of President Bush winning a war in Iraq, achieving sky-high approval ratings, and then being defeated by an insurgent campaign from a Democratic governor of a small, marginal, State. In addition, I think some aspects of the electoral math work in his favor. I've heard that Dean is doing very well among Hispanics, and I expect Dean to play very well in The Midwest - where this election is going to be fought.... but more on that in a moment. Anyhow, here is my early electoral college analysis. I invite other Brin-L'ers to put in their own electoral college predictions over the next week or so, and come November we can laugh at the results. :) So here goes.... First, while the old cliche goes that you should never make the mistake of re-fighting the last election.... I think that cliche meets its maker this year, as the 50-50 nation holds and a very tight race ensues. And since a Democratic blowout is nearly inconceivable against an incumbent with a solid economy, and a Bush blowout isn't any fun to discuss, I'm going to base the rest of my analysis on the assumption of a close race, and my general assumption of Dean as the nominee with someone like Clark or Bob Graham as the VP. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ First, I am going to pencil in the solid Democratic States: MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI - All as solidly Democratic as it gets. ME - classicly a swing state that has gone to the Left, Clinton won it both times and Gore won by 5% with another 5% for Nader. Maine simply won't be a factor in a close race. NH - Bush's second closest win in 2000 - by only 1% with 4% for Nader, and fully expect it to go for Dean if he is the nominee. MI - Another former swing state that is going to the Left. Clinton won it both times, and was a Gore win by 5% with 2% for Nader. The Union presence here, however, is simply too strong for Bush to realistically dent. This is also the strongest State for Arab-American voters which feel sold-out by Bush. Moreover, MI is one State whose economy has performed below the national average under Bush, so there will be little economy boost for Bush here. Quite simply if Bush gets competitive here, it probably isn't a close race any more. IL - The Land of Lincoln where the Republican Party was founded is now solidly Democrat country. The Dems simply can't win without IL, and aren't too worried about losing it unless we get into blowout territory. Gore won it by 12% CA - Arnold won on the strength of local issues.... California is not seriously in play in Presidential politics. WA - Was contested a bit in 2000, but Gore won by 5.5% with another 4% for Nader. OR - One of what I call the five "recount States" from 2000 (the others being FL, NM, IA and WI). Since this was one of Nader's strongest States at +5%, I'm giving this one to the Democrats, althuogh it may be contested (see below). DEMOCRAT BASE: 211 (note: add NM where Dean is reportedly running very strong to this total and the Democratic base is 216 votes) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Now, for the solidly Republican States: IN, KY, TN, VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT - The new "Solid South" and "Solid West" for the Republicans. Bush's strong showing among evangelicals and the natural advantages of incumbency will keep these States largely uncontested, as the Democrats will pour all of the resources into bigger fish to fry. MO - A classic swing State that is trending Republican. Bush won it by 3%, but Republicans have been gaining strength here ever since. This is somewhat controversial, but again, in my mind, the Democrats are best off playing to win a narrow victory - not trying to steal States away when the Republicans have a strong social conservative base. Conservative power in the Branson region of Missouri should keep this State solidly in the Republican fold, with the powers of incumbency turning a narrow 3% win as a challenger into a fairly safe "keep." WV - Once perhaps one of the most Democratic States in the nation - plumping for both Dukakis and a second Carter term, West Virginia has officially flipped in my estimation - again on the strength of social conservatives. Bush won by a resounding 5.5% in 2000. CO - Next time around, a massive influx of Hispanics and suburbanites may make Colorado competitive, but for now Bush holds onto this core conservative State. REPUBLICAN BASE: 227 votes (note: take MO out of this equation and the GOP base is only 216 votes) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Now for the key swing States: FL - Everyone knows Florida. Packing 27 EV's this time around, it is again the big prize. Since Bush won the first time around and is now an incumbent, and his brother is the governor, I give this the slightest of leans towards the GOP. PA - Another classic swingstate. Described by James Carville as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in-betwen. Its 21 EV's lean pretty solidly Democratic. But Bush has spent a ton of time here, and will be extremely focused on trying to win PA. OH - I predict that Ohio will be this year's Florida - in terms of the intensity of the campaigning. Ohio, like Florida, was once solidly Republican. The Bush recovery has not yet reached Ohio, however, which spells trouble for the 20 EV's here. The Democratic nominee can truly blow this race wide open by pulling Ohio out of the Republican coalition. Still, Ohio leans Republican with a very strong history in that regard. IA, WI, and MN - IA and WI were both "recount" States in 2000, with Gore winning by 0.32% and 0.22% respectively. Meanwhile, Republicans have shown recent strength in local Minnesota elections which Gore won by only 2.5%. These States have 7, 10, and 10 EV's, giving these three a grand total of 27 EV's if they all break the same way - a prize equal to Florida. This should be one of the most closely fought areas of the country. So, in my mind, the strategy here is simple - whichever side wins three of the above wins the Presidency. Win only two, and the Republicans likely win another photo-finish, but it would be very close. There is, however, potential for a fifth "prize" in this election in the "new West." OR, with 7 EV's, was already noted as a recount State in the 2000 election, as was NM and its 5 EV's. At the same time, Hispanic immigration may well make AZ and its 10 EV's competitive, as well as NV's 5 EV's. Thus, this "new West" quartet presents another 27 EV prize - although these four are less similar, and thus less likely to break the same way as The Midwest trio. Thus, this now presents a true "win 3 of 5 and win the Presidency" scenario that applies equally well to both parties. These are then the five electoral "prizes" for 2004.... Fl - 27 PA - 21 OH - 20 IA/MN/WI - 27 OR/NV/AZ/NM - 27 (Lower this to 15 if OR and NM are given to Dean in the 216 vs. 216 base scenario. 54 more votes are needed to win in the 216 vs. 216 base scenario) So, what is my ultimate very, very, early prediction? I like Bush to win in OH and FL based on incumbency and incumbent organizations in those two States, and also to win the "Midwest 3" of IA, MN, and WI based on the strength of social conservatives. PA again ends up being disappointly non-close for the Republicans and goes Democratic, as does OR. In a portent of things to come with Hispanic voters in future election cycles, however, the Dems pick up NV again and Bush barely hangs onto AZ. Lastly, Bush wins a a hand of five-card stud poker to claim NM after an out-and-out tie. :-) BUSH 301 DEAN 237 Nevertheless, if Dean holds onto NM, and plays well in IA/MN/WI he can definitely pull out the upset win.... to say nothing of exciting Ohio voters who are very unhappy with the economy or senior citizens in Florida. In the case of Kerry and Gephardt, however, I see Bush successfully tabbing them as "old-school liberals" and blowing them out. Clark is a bit more intriguing, because we still really haven't seen him peak yet, but so far he seems to be really struggling with squaring what he is saying now with what he has said in the past, which should dog him for the rest of the campaign. Edwards, of course, by winning NC and potentially putting other Southern States into play really reshuffles the deck..... but even with a shocking upset in Iowa, he just doesn't seem to have the horses to win the race be the nominee, and is probably too inexperienced to be Dean's VP choice. Anyhow, I'll admit that as a Republican I wasn't really about to predict a Democratic win, no matter whom the nominee is - but I'll admit that Dean concerns me the most of the leading contenders..... Bonus Prediction: Order of Finish in the Hawkeye Cauci on Monday: Dean - somewhat surprisingly a good 3% over his next-closest challenger Kerry - who claims the "comeback kid" mantle Gephardt - who suddenly thinks about resigning Edwards - who claims an upset over expectations Links: http://www.uselectionatlas.org - best place for historical results http://www.edwardsforprez.com/dailykos.html - a good electoral college calculator http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/ - a calculator with better references for individual state totals JDG _______________________________________________________ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] "The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03 _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
