Erik Reuter wrote:
>
> On Thu, Jun 12, 2003 at 01:25:17PM -0700, Jan Coffey wrote:
> >
> > --- Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > On Wed, Jun 11, 2003 at 10:55:07PM -0700, Jan Coffey wrote:
> > >
> > > > It is important however not to neglect the benefit of intuition. Using
> > > > anecdotal evidence is often appropriate when making decisions,
> > > > especially in the formation of hypothesis.
> > > >
> > > > I think I am paraphrasing Feynman himself, but perhaps not. Anyway,
> > > > what are the chances?
> > >
> > > This one.
> > >
> >
> > I don't know. perhaps I was, but perhaps not. I just didn't want to be
> > paraphrasing someone without acknowledging that I might be.
> >
>
> Sounds rather imprecise to me (joke).
>
> I was just thinking about it, and it occurred to me that despite having
> read a lot of (and about) Feynman, I couldn't recall reading what you
> (possibly) attribute to him. But he wrote a lot, so I could have missed
> it or forgotten.
If you're talking about the license plate thing (and if you're not,
y'all have managed to *totally* confuse me, not that it's that difficult
to do so this week), I quote from _Genius_ by James Gleick, from near
the end of the section "The Explorers and the Tourists" in the chapter
"Caltech":
He subjected other forms of science and near-science to the same
scrutiny: tests by psychologists, statistical sampling of public
opinion. He had developed pointed ways of illustrating the
slippage that occurred when experimenters allowed themselves to be
less than rigorously skeptical or failed to appreciate the power of
coincidence. He described a common experience: and experienter
notices a peculiar result after many trials -- rats in a maze, for
example, turn alternately right, left, right, and left. The
experimenter calculates the odds against something so extraordinary
and decides it cannot have been an accident. Feynman would say:
"I had the most remarkable experience.... While coming in here I
saw license plate ANZ 912. Calculate for me, please, the odds that
of all the license plates..."
If that's not what y'all were talking about, ignore the quote. :)
Julia
_______________________________________________
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
