----- Original Message ----- From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Monday, March 31, 2003 7:39 PM Subject: Re: Impressions almost two weeks into the war
> I'm not sure where you see a theoretical chance of > keeping Hussein in power - I'd like you to elaborate > on that. I said theoretical, because I'm not predicting it to happen...but he has at least given himself some chance this way. The arguement would be that the the general perception of the war in Iraq will turn from regiem change to protecting the homeland. Even if the US has superiority, the irregular forces will be transformed from a terror squad to freedom fighters against the colonialist invaders. They will be at least semi-supported by the population, and they will not fade away. Rather, they will continue to hide in the cities, requiring a door to door fighting, with lotsa civilians killed in order to contain them. During this time, the Arab world increases their fervor in seeing this as the US vs. Islam. A coup exists in one country that has at least tacitly favored the US. At which point, the US gives up before the whole Arab world is against them. > If it doesn't, we'll have to deal with > Baghdad, but I would expect Allied casualties in > taking the city to be in the hundreds, not thousands. > So, overall, despite the media's remarkable panic, I'd > say we're doing pretty well. I differ with this assessment. Rumsfeld started talking about units surrendering en mass on the first day of the ground campaign. He supplied the extraordinarily high standards that he is being held to. I'm pretty sure that I've seen him state, either at the start of the war or just before, that we were talking about weeks, not months of war. Everything that I've seen indicates that he overruled military rules about the force to use, relying on Shock and Awe to destroy the Iraq army with an absolute minimal use of force. He appeared to be convinced that we did not need the additional forces that the Powell doctrine suggested to win quickly and decisively. I have no doubt that we can win the war; the question is whether we can do it without allowing tens of thousands of civilians to die from disease, hunger, etc. Even though it will be the result of the actions of Hussein's forces, the deaths will be laid at the US's doorstep. Most major media has a plethora of retired military officers offering them advice. My understanding of CNN, for example, is that the general flavor is strongly favorable to the military. The greatest negative that I've picked up from the overall coverage is the suspicion lower level managers have of micromanagement by top management. Dan M. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
