----- Original Message ----- From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, March 18, 2003 9:33 AM Subject: Re: Who is the sheriff?
> --- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Given this assessment, it seems to me that we will > > need a bit of > > luck...unless the US has tricks up its sleeve that I > > can't begin to > > comprehend. Lets assume a reasonable worst case > > scenario for what we > > cannot control. The Republican guard decides to > > have a last ditch stand in > > Baghdad. It goes to ground, and locates in various > > buildings in Baghdad, > > say 50k strong spread through the streets of > > Baghdad. It uses children as > > runners for communications, and ambushes the US in > > such a manner that it is > > very difficult to separate civilians from the > > Republican Guard. The point > > will not be victory for Hussein, but to make the > > victory for the US as > > costly as possible. > > > > How can the US spectacularly and immediately win an > > urban war like this? > > > > Dan M. > > We _definitely_ need luck. There are two ways to win > that scenario. The first, and preferable one, is to > make sure that it doesn't happen. The battle plan > looks, to me, like something of a race. We're trying > to sprint to Baghdad before the Republican Guard can > redeploy and turn it into an urban battlefield. Our > airpower will be used to pin them down and slow their > movement while American armored forces try to meet and > annihilate them outside the city. This is possible. So, the next two days are important for this, right? If they start redeploying to Baghdad now, then the chances of doing this are greatly reduced. > If it _does_ get to city fighting, things get a lot > uglier. The Army has been thinking about this for a > long time, and they have plans using PGMs to hit city > strongpoints, and so on. I did a websearch and the only thing I got was a rocket that carried a thermonuclear warhead. I'll be _very very_ upset with you if this is what you are talking about. :-) >My guess is that in that > scenario Allied forces will surround the city, launch > lightning strikes to seize strategic positions, use > special operations raids and so on to destroy enemy > concentrations with minimal damage to surrounding > areas, and wait for Iraqi forces to dissolve. I > think. I honestly don't know, and I'm not thrilled > with this option. Change is _always_ a major factor > in warfare, in this one like any other. That's my nightmare scenario. Day after day of the US fighting urban guerrillas, with civilian casualties on the nightly news. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
