----- Original Message -----
From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 3:03 PM
Subject: Re: EU Warns Iraq It Faces 'Last Chance'



> As for British polling data, let me point you to:
>
http://chicagoboyz.blogspot.com/2003_02_01_chicagoboyz_archive.html#8929976
8

BTW, I finally went back up the line to see if there was a new poll and
found that these folks did selective editing.  Here is the entire poll:


Q1. Do you believe that the UK should take part in a war against Iraq?
Only with a fresh mandate from the UN 40%
Without a fresh mandate for war from the UN 9%
Not go to war, with or without a fresh mandate from the UN 45%
Don't know 6%

Q2. Which, if any, of the following do you think apply to Tony Blair?
He acts as the foreign minister of the US and does anything that Bush wants
him to do 43%
He does what he believes to be right for Britain 46%
Both 6%
Neither of these 1%
Don't know 4%

Q3. Which of the following do you think is the main reason that America and
Britain want to attack Iraq?
To secure oil supplies 28%
To depose Saddam as leader of Iraq 24%
To eliminate Saddam's weapons of mass destruction 23%
To help prevent another act of international terrorism like September 11th
20%
None of these 1%
Don't know 4%

Q4. France and Germany have suggested sending three times the present
number of inspectors to Iraq to look for weapons of mass destruction.
America says Saddam is not co-operating, the inspectors are now a
"diversion and not a solution". Which of the following comes closest to
your own view?
Sending many more weapons inspectors to Iraq is a good plan 50%
Sending many more weapons inspectors is a diversion and not a solution 44%
Don't know 6%

Q5. Do you feel that the British and American governments have proved their
case that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction?
Yes 33%
No 60%
Don't know 7%

Q6. If there is military action against Iraq, how long do you think
fighting will last?
A few days 3%
A week or 2 7%
Up to a month 10%
1 month to 3 months 14%
3-6 months 14%
6 months to a year 14%
Longer than that 16%
Don't know 21%

Q7. Do you think a war against Iraq would or would not.;..

Remove Saddam Hussein from power

Yes, would 54%
No, would not 37%
Don't know 9%

Deter other countries from developing weapons of mass destruction
Yes, would 31%
No, would not 64%
Don't know 5%

Deter terrorist groups from attacking America or Britain in the future
Yes, would 20%
No, would not 76%
Don't know 4%

Damage relations with the Muslim community in Britain
Yes, would 75%
No, would not 19%
Don't know 6%

Q8. Do you believe that there are links between Saddam Hussein's regime and
Al Qaeda and associated terror groups?
Yes 56%
No 27%
Don't know 17%

Q9. It has been said that September 11th showed the "dangers of waiting
until it's too late" to take military action against terrorist groups or
dangerous states. Do you agree or disagree?
Agree 51%
Disagree 42%
Don't know 7%

I've also thought about your point that the UK opinion of the Falklands war
turned around after victory.  I think that's a different situation. Few
people expect the US to lose, and many of those that believe many civilians
would be killed in an attack will believe that many were, no matter what.

Every indication is that the US will occupy Iraq for years.  People will
denounce US imperialism for it.  IMHO, that will be enough to keep the
public mood in GB and continental Europe from favoring the US.

A survey of Europe is given at

http://www.gallup-international.com/surveys.htm

Its interesting that the Spanish government is bucking overwhelming public
opinion to back the US.  I'm not sanguine that the US's image will be
turned around enough to make Spain's support popular after a victory.

I think the underlying question is the fear that, unrestrained, the US will
give into temptation and use its power for its own good instead of the
global good.  You've mentioned this yourself.  That fear doesn't of course,
justify comparing Bush to Hitler, but it does tend to indicate that an
American victory and occupation of Iraq will do less than you suggest it
will to change public opinion outside of the US.

Dan M.


Dan M.


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