On Thu, Feb 27, 2003 at 09:34:50PM -0600, The Fool wrote:
> Interesting article talking about credit, inflation, deflation, the
> economy, etc.
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Prechter2003.htm
> _______________________________________________
> http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
>From the article:
"I believe very strongly that 2003 will not simply be a year of
falling stock prices but collapsing stock prices. Exactly what
level that panic takes the Dow, I am not sure. But I am sure it
is going to be a lot lower than anyone out there is currently
forecasting. Before the process has completely ended, I think we
will see the Dow at less than 1000."
If this guy really believed his predictions, he should have most of his
money short right now. But his "advice" is to hold gold bullion and
Swiss and Singapore government bonds.
I'll make a prediction: there is a 50% chance gold will go up this
year, a 60% chance US stock markets will go up this year, a 60% chance
international stock markets will go up this year, a 60% chance real
estate will go up this year, and a 70% chance the bond market will go up
this year (but not predicting how much increase for any of them).
Another prediction: in the long run, you'll do better dividing your
investments up among those asset classes, rebalancing every year or two,
than if you make big moves as Robert Prechter, Jr. reccommends.
Final prediction: your best bet for making money is to get a cushy CEO
job at a company with a trendy name like "Elliot Wave" and write a
book giving other people advice based on your "predictions", while not
risking any of your own money on those predictions.
--
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/
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